Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Peter Lambert · 82°F

1.3% edge · Houston Astros

Atlanta Braves win

50.8%

Houston Astros win

49.2%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

10.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.29)Houston Astros (mean 4.92)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.21

Over

61.7%

Under

31.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	50.8%	-113	-103
Houston Astros	49.2%	+105	+103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.0	4.4	5.3	2.0	2.8
Peter Lambert RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	4.5	5.6	2.1	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Mahle4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Peter Lambert4+ 67%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.9	.790	.171	.007	.244	.474	.951	.277	.355	.487	.842
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.713	.167	.015	.251	.665	1.011	.282	.390	.516	.906
Matt Olson	4.7	.591	.193	.006	.284	.574	1.131	.264	.360	.524	.884
Michael Harris II	4.6	.778	.192	.019	.216	.209	.910	.278	.317	.481	.798
Mauricio Dubón	4.5	.818	.194	.019	.107	.270	.541	.274	.323	.407	.730
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.674	.169	.013	.158	.355	.672	.257	.325	.426	.751
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.509	.172	.016	.171	.492	1.021	.234	.330	.427	.757
Austin Riley	4.1	.571	.148	.014	.183	.351	1.201	.246	.320	.441	.761
Sean Murphy	4.0	.450	.134	.006	.176	.414	1.146	.218	.314	.409	.723

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.826	.205	.014	.178	.248	.908	.281	.329	.457	.786
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.702	.210	.011	.294	.646	.760	.317	.421	.607	1.028
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.638	.178	.011	.223	.457	.671	.270	.359	.493	.852
Jose Altuve	4.3	.735	.182	.015	.167	.325	.780	.276	.336	.456	.791
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.574	.155	.039	.189	.314	.966	.246	.306	.451	.757
Christian Walker	4.1	.540	.153	.009	.217	.325	.995	.245	.313	.464	.777
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.492	.148	.026	.163	.405	1.159	.232	.316	.424	.741
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.9	.520	.120	.010	.121	.511	.963	.230	.336	.379	.716
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.594	.131	.005	.105	.235	.758	.237	.289	.366	.655

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections