Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Hayden Wesneski · 84°F

3.1% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

47.3%

Houston Astros win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

10.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.27)Houston Astros (mean 5.33)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.61

Over

64.3%

Under

35.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	47.3%	+122	+111
Houston Astros	52.7%	-132	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grant Holmes RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.5	3.7	5.1	2.0	2.8
Hayden Wesneski RHP · Houston Astros	4.9	4.2	5.5	1.7	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Grant Holmes4+ 50%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Hayden Wesneski4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.9	.800	.163	.011	.254	.434	.956	.279	.349	.494	.843
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.728	.173	.015	.255	.599	1.023	.284	.382	.520	.901
Matt Olson	4.7	.593	.193	.006	.294	.520	1.146	.264	.352	.529	.880
Michael Harris II	4.5	.788	.207	.019	.228	.193	.892	.287	.322	.502	.824
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.819	.184	.019	.105	.244	.547	.271	.315	.399	.715
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.669	.175	.012	.168	.308	.666	.258	.319	.435	.754
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.529	.163	.015	.180	.452	.999	.238	.325	.434	.760
Austin Riley	4.1	.574	.151	.016	.191	.323	1.182	.250	.319	.453	.772
Sean Murphy	4.0	.454	.143	.006	.184	.390	1.127	.223	.313	.424	.737

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.835	.208	.015	.190	.271	.891	.286	.338	.472	.810
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.701	.214	.011	.304	.699	.751	.321	.433	.621	1.054
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.627	.174	.010	.214	.525	.669	.265	.367	.481	.848
Jose Altuve	4.4	.744	.175	.013	.175	.365	.764	.278	.344	.460	.805
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.777	.195	.008	.193	.176	.685	.289	.323	.483	.805
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.552	.154	.034	.196	.327	.923	.246	.310	.459	.769
Christian Walker	4.1	.530	.153	.007	.211	.347	.960	.246	.320	.466	.786
Cam Smith	3.9	.557	.142	.043	.162	.326	.966	.253	.323	.453	.776
LaMonte Wade Jr.	3.8	.519	.125	.011	.119	.519	.918	.237	.347	.391	.738

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections