Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Jesús Luzardo vs Michael Wacha · 73°F

1.2% edge · Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies win

57.0%

Kansas City Royals win

43.0%

Fair line (home)

+132

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.02)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.06)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.08

Over

40.7%

Under

49.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	57.0%	-146	-132
Kansas City Royals	43.0%	+134	+132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.9	.956	.225	.027	.129	.323	.823	.292	.343	.437	.780
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.532	.148	.013	.296	.696	1.278	.243	.360	.504	.864
Bryce Harper	4.7	.721	.254	.009	.214	.596	.856	.293	.387	.517	.904
Brandon Marsh	4.6	.817	.220	.027	.116	.418	1.103	.283	.352	.432	.784
Alec Bohm	4.5	.850	.210	.019	.114	.288	.606	.285	.337	.426	.763
Bryson Stott	4.4	.790	.187	.030	.097	.368	.628	.276	.341	.410	.751
J.T. Realmuto	4.3	.710	.184	.016	.106	.277	.868	.258	.316	.394	.710
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.2	.595	.166	.011	.107	.408	1.036	.236	.317	.373	.690
Justin Crawford	4.0	.794	.175	.030	.048	.283	.733	.280	.336	.382	.718

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.640	.203	.019	.125	.451	1.349	.238	.316	.386	.702
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.779	.253	.033	.166	.357	.880	.299	.360	.497	.857
Lane Thomas	4.4	.649	.192	.016	.101	.399	1.186	.242	.319	.375	.694
Jac Caglianone	4.3	.685	.184	.018	.146	.338	1.137	.264	.330	.431	.761
Nick Loftin	4.2	.670	.184	.031	.069	.419	.726	.256	.339	.378	.717
Starling Marte	4.1	.766	.182	.013	.073	.256	1.009	.274	.330	.386	.717
Isaac Collins	4.0	.590	.173	.016	.059	.434	1.013	.239	.334	.348	.682
Michael Massey	3.9	.656	.195	.010	.103	.187	.758	.263	.304	.406	.711
Tyler Tolbert	3.8	.610	.160	.015	.033	.236	1.049	.235	.291	.318	.609

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections