Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Luinder Avila · 89°F

0.4% edge · Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies win

54.8%

Kansas City Royals win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

9.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.32)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.53)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.85

Over

42.8%

Under

50.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	54.8%	-129	-121
Kansas City Royals	45.2%	+119	+121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	5.0	.949	.230	.027	.130	.399	.850	.291	.354	.439	.792
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.526	.134	.011	.291	.859	1.295	.241	.383	.499	.881
Bryce Harper	4.8	.735	.251	.011	.200	.720	.892	.296	.407	.512	.918
Brandon Marsh	4.7	.826	.216	.029	.118	.502	1.151	.285	.365	.435	.801
Alec Bohm	4.6	.881	.202	.017	.113	.383	.628	.291	.358	.429	.787
Bryson Stott	4.5	.793	.178	.029	.102	.451	.667	.276	.354	.412	.765
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.4	.594	.178	.010	.110	.517	1.100	.234	.333	.373	.705
Justin Crawford	4.3	.838	.180	.031	.058	.353	.770	.285	.349	.393	.742
Garrett Stubbs	4.1	.645	.144	.010	.072	.392	.936	.236	.321	.340	.660

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.693	.208	.019	.156	.400	1.244	.255	.322	.424	.746
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.815	.270	.034	.193	.325	.779	.314	.368	.534	.902
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.734	.208	.020	.195	.314	1.054	.285	.343	.490	.833
Lane Thomas	4.3	.672	.212	.016	.130	.357	1.052	.263	.331	.424	.755
Michael Massey	4.2	.763	.221	.012	.130	.172	.741	.280	.314	.438	.752
Salvador Perez	4.1	.692	.173	.003	.180	.186	.827	.271	.313	.457	.770
Josh Rojas	4.0	.674	.193	.014	.065	.317	.828	.259	.321	.372	.693
Kameron Misner	3.9	.497	.180	.020	.102	.358	1.250	.228	.304	.378	.682
Isaac Collins	3.8	.567	.169	.022	.068	.415	.896	.250	.342	.376	.718

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections