San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Michael King vs Seth Lugo · 90°F

1.7% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

54.5%

Kansas City Royals win

45.5%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

10.18

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.44)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.74)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.18

Over

43.7%

Under

49.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	54.5%	-117	-120
Kansas City Royals	45.5%	+108	+120

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.899	.247	.019	.210	.493	.848	.310	.384	.516	.900
Jackson Merrill	4.9	.838	.241	.039	.168	.316	.941	.284	.334	.466	.800
Xander Bogaerts	4.8	.919	.208	.006	.129	.418	.751	.293	.360	.434	.794
Manny Machado	4.6	.768	.204	.003	.218	.422	.827	.283	.351	.489	.840
Gavin Sheets	4.5	.720	.208	.006	.159	.405	.815	.267	.339	.437	.776
Ty France	4.4	.791	.187	.016	.136	.274	.794	.280	.345	.436	.780
Jake Cronenworth	4.3	.685	.181	.019	.105	.439	.756	.261	.349	.401	.750
Miguel Andujar	4.2	.847	.204	.024	.109	.222	.558	.299	.341	.445	.786
Luis Campusano	4.1	.698	.173	.007	.153	.404	.721	.282	.359	.459	.818

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.664	.217	.017	.159	.494	1.245	.253	.335	.426	.761
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.780	.251	.032	.193	.404	.797	.303	.371	.519	.890
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.675	.182	.025	.196	.362	1.168	.265	.334	.467	.800
Lane Thomas	4.4	.622	.202	.008	.135	.437	1.091	.249	.333	.410	.743
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.638	.183	.019	.162	.437	.698	.265	.347	.451	.799
Salvador Perez	4.2	.649	.170	.003	.177	.209	.854	.258	.307	.440	.747
Michael Massey	4.0	.692	.210	.008	.117	.224	.740	.271	.316	.423	.739
Nick Loftin	3.9	.626	.166	.025	.078	.424	.623	.260	.350	.390	.740
Isaac Collins	3.8	.565	.166	.014	.073	.485	.895	.250	.357	.376	.733

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections