Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 6, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Noah Cameron · 91°F

5.4% edge · Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies win

58.7%

Kansas City Royals win

41.3%

Fair line (home)

+142

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.11)Kansas City Royals (mean 3.97)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.08

Over

47.1%

Under

52.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	58.7%	-189	-142
Kansas City Royals	41.3%	+172	+142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.9	.944	.224	.027	.136	.327	.853	.291	.343	.441	.785
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.541	.140	.014	.302	.731	1.287	.247	.369	.513	.882
Bryce Harper	4.7	.725	.244	.013	.211	.617	.883	.294	.390	.515	.906
Alec Bohm	4.6	.868	.212	.020	.117	.319	.634	.286	.342	.428	.770
Brandon Marsh	4.5	.794	.209	.029	.120	.419	1.101	.284	.355	.439	.794
Edmundo Sosa	4.4	.759	.210	.020	.120	.181	.929	.268	.309	.415	.724
Bryson Stott	4.3	.769	.187	.030	.103	.369	.634	.281	.348	.424	.772
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.679	.182	.015	.114	.277	.906	.258	.318	.402	.720
Derek Hill	4.0	.665	.155	.017	.102	.259	1.078	.251	.306	.383	.689

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lane Thomas	4.6	.744	.219	.017	.098	.354	1.196	.256	.321	.386	.707
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.837	.272	.038	.138	.304	.837	.308	.360	.491	.851
Salvador Perez	4.4	.745	.186	.005	.149	.173	.937	.260	.299	.414	.713
Jac Caglianone	4.3	.723	.197	.021	.133	.282	1.130	.271	.326	.433	.759
Nick Loftin	4.2	.728	.195	.035	.067	.348	.693	.270	.339	.394	.733
Starling Marte	4.1	.801	.190	.014	.066	.215	.982	.282	.330	.391	.721
Tyler Tolbert	4.0	.686	.177	.015	.031	.215	1.085	.244	.292	.324	.616
Luke Maile	3.9	.587	.162	.011	.053	.294	1.168	.232	.300	.330	.630
Josh Rojas	3.7	.631	.189	.015	.046	.276	.820	.257	.316	.361	.677

Data notes: game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections