San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Griffin Canning vs Randy Dobnak · 91°F

2.4% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

52.6%

Kansas City Royals win

47.3%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

10.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.40)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.93)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.33

Over

36.3%

Under

55.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	52.6%	-105	-111
Kansas City Royals	47.3%	-103	+111

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.954	.257	.017	.176	.508	.723	.316	.393	.500	.893
Jackson Merrill	4.9	.864	.259	.038	.150	.336	.806	.289	.343	.462	.805
Xander Bogaerts	4.8	.959	.222	.006	.104	.431	.626	.300	.370	.428	.797
Manny Machado	4.7	.801	.221	.003	.192	.447	.716	.290	.361	.482	.843
Gavin Sheets	4.5	.744	.222	.007	.141	.423	.723	.272	.347	.433	.781
Ty France	4.4	.824	.197	.022	.116	.284	.678	.288	.357	.435	.791
Jake Cronenworth	4.3	.693	.192	.017	.090	.469	.668	.262	.357	.394	.751
Miguel Andujar	4.2	.883	.218	.025	.095	.237	.488	.308	.353	.448	.801
Freddy Fermin	4.1	.746	.175	.006	.091	.331	.620	.271	.336	.393	.729

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.677	.218	.016	.157	.524	1.202	.255	.341	.428	.769
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.800	.253	.031	.198	.431	.763	.310	.380	.530	.910
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.681	.187	.025	.191	.386	1.132	.267	.337	.466	.803
Lane Thomas	4.4	.631	.200	.009	.142	.472	1.053	.253	.341	.419	.760
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.655	.196	.021	.168	.454	.664	.273	.356	.469	.824
Salvador Perez	4.2	.654	.179	.003	.183	.231	.841	.263	.315	.452	.767
Michael Massey	4.1	.698	.205	.012	.118	.237	.721	.272	.320	.426	.746
Nick Loftin	4.0	.628	.181	.025	.086	.451	.588	.267	.359	.408	.767
Isaac Collins	3.8	.562	.162	.017	.072	.517	.845	.249	.361	.376	.736

Data notes: home starter Randy Dobnak: only 32 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Randy Dobnak: only 9 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections