San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Trevor McDonald vs Michael Wacha · 100°F

2.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

49.3%

Kansas City Royals win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

9.83

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 5.00)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.83)

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

9.83

Over

41.0%

Under

59.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	49.3%	+108	+103
Kansas City Royals	50.7%	-117	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.9	1.190	.238	.051	.054	.238	.173	.332	.369	.440	.809
Bryce Eldridge	4.8	.764	.219	.005	.177	.430	1.198	.270	.340	.445	.786
Casey Schmitt	4.7	.829	.213	.014	.176	.229	.837	.280	.323	.455	.779
Rafael Devers	4.6	.658	.215	.011	.221	.480	1.032	.273	.355	.496	.851
Heliot Ramos	4.5	.778	.192	.027	.169	.311	.948	.285	.343	.469	.811
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.882	.228	.045	.069	.262	.379	.303	.350	.432	.783
Willy Adames	4.2	.602	.181	.014	.175	.396	.953	.254	.328	.446	.774
Drew Gilbert	4.1	.647	.188	.029	.100	.333	.671	.258	.327	.404	.731
Daniel Susac	4.0	.713	.159	.021	.092	.216	.901	.262	.310	.389	.699

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.760	.238	.016	.124	.491	1.036	.270	.350	.422	.772
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.861	.274	.034	.147	.402	.632	.316	.384	.505	.889
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.740	.206	.029	.147	.368	.969	.276	.346	.449	.796
Lane Thomas	4.4	.694	.214	.012	.105	.444	.906	.264	.349	.405	.755
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.695	.208	.022	.131	.450	.554	.278	.362	.449	.811
Salvador Perez	4.2	.727	.181	.004	.142	.214	.701	.271	.323	.429	.752
Michael Massey	4.1	.756	.223	.009	.096	.220	.610	.284	.329	.422	.751
Josh Rojas	4.0	.672	.205	.014	.052	.361	.693	.264	.337	.373	.710
Isaac Collins	3.9	.629	.186	.019	.050	.485	.727	.268	.375	.382	.757

Data notes: game-time temp 100F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections