San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 19, 2026 · Germán Márquez vs Noah Cameron · 91°F

5.7% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

54.0%

Kansas City Royals win

46.0%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

9.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.10)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.52)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.63

Over

45.8%

Under

54.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	54.0%	+103	-117
Kansas City Royals	46.0%	-112	+117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.9	.897	.231	.017	.188	.497	.835	.305	.381	.494	.875
Jackson Merrill	4.8	.817	.232	.036	.169	.317	.933	.281	.332	.462	.794
Manny Machado	4.7	.779	.210	.003	.216	.420	.841	.284	.350	.487	.837
Ty France	4.6	.819	.188	.019	.134	.287	.820	.278	.343	.429	.772
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.866	.187	.004	.115	.390	.701	.289	.355	.422	.777
Miguel Andujar	4.4	.879	.217	.022	.113	.238	.586	.300	.343	.445	.788
Luis Rengifo	4.3	.817	.164	.013	.091	.272	.636	.275	.328	.393	.720
Jase Bowen	4.2	.634	.152	.035	.105	.262	1.118	.240	.294	.379	.673
Luis Campusano	4.0	.680	.166	.007	.154	.388	.722	.279	.354	.457	.811

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.695	.225	.015	.172	.466	1.119	.264	.340	.447	.787
Nick Loftin	4.6	.747	.211	.025	.104	.482	.618	.270	.357	.413	.770
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.703	.194	.025	.220	.355	1.020	.282	.347	.505	.852
Lane Thomas	4.3	.655	.209	.011	.152	.434	.960	.265	.345	.442	.787
Isaac Collins	4.2	.641	.195	.020	.089	.539	.852	.260	.364	.398	.762
Salvador Perez	4.1	.693	.167	.003	.187	.206	.748	.271	.319	.461	.781
Josh Rojas	4.0	.655	.192	.012	.071	.361	.783	.255	.326	.373	.699
Tyler Tolbert	3.9	.661	.170	.017	.052	.263	.889	.249	.308	.350	.658
Luke Maile	3.8	.566	.144	.009	.082	.378	.993	.237	.322	.358	.681

Data notes: game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections