San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila · 89°F

3.3% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

52.8%

Kansas City Royals win

47.2%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

9.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 5.00)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.42)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.42

Over

44.1%

Under

45.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	52.8%	-102	-112
Kansas City Royals	47.2%	-106	+112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heliot Ramos	5.0	.852	.199	.033	.162	.455	1.069	.280	.355	.449	.804
Bryce Eldridge	4.8	.726	.216	.006	.164	.568	1.249	.262	.354	.431	.785
Casey Schmitt	4.7	.802	.210	.015	.157	.309	.881	.271	.328	.434	.762
Rafael Devers	4.6	.629	.209	.011	.193	.628	1.036	.264	.370	.469	.839
Willy Adames	4.5	.629	.190	.013	.162	.536	1.005	.252	.346	.429	.774
Jung Hoo Lee	4.4	.866	.226	.050	.067	.350	.399	.301	.362	.432	.794
Jesus Rodriguez	4.3	.824	.168	.015	.068	.430	.589	.280	.360	.385	.745
Drew Gilbert	4.2	.632	.183	.028	.091	.434	.698	.253	.342	.392	.733
Christian Koss	4.1	.723	.197	.015	.066	.231	.779	.264	.316	.376	.692

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.692	.225	.019	.142	.467	1.113	.258	.336	.423	.759
Lane Thomas	4.5	.682	.213	.011	.123	.449	1.014	.254	.335	.403	.738
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.713	.193	.023	.184	.352	1.033	.275	.339	.471	.810
Salvador Perez	4.3	.719	.182	.005	.165	.224	.805	.265	.312	.435	.747
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.654	.197	.019	.148	.426	.591	.271	.350	.451	.801
Starling Marte	4.1	.815	.176	.011	.080	.286	.857	.287	.346	.403	.748
Michael Massey	4.0	.706	.205	.008	.105	.221	.652	.272	.317	.415	.732
Nick Loftin	3.9	.642	.188	.029	.074	.408	.525	.271	.356	.407	.763
Tyler Tolbert	3.8	.645	.157	.016	.044	.266	.846	.248	.310	.341	.651

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections