Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Joe Ryan vs Randy Dobnak · 91°F

1.4% edge · Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins win

56.5%

Kansas City Royals win

43.5%

Fair line (home)

+130

Proj. total

9.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 5.33)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.29)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.62

Over

45.7%

Under

43.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	56.5%	-144	-130
Kansas City Royals	43.5%	+133	+130

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	5.0	.882	.241	.016	.140	.558	.801	.290	.376	.448	.824
Ryan Jeffers	4.9	.810	.247	.016	.161	.522	.730	.289	.379	.467	.845
Josh Bell	4.8	.839	.193	.015	.144	.466	.724	.278	.355	.431	.786
Kody Clemens	4.7	.706	.219	.041	.184	.339	.836	.269	.331	.469	.800
Royce Lewis	4.6	.747	.216	.005	.181	.370	.810	.277	.341	.462	.803
Brooks Lee	4.4	.811	.172	.025	.123	.305	.565	.276	.332	.420	.752
Alan Roden	4.3	.789	.209	.018	.089	.430	.651	.290	.374	.424	.798
Luke Keaschall	4.2	.830	.204	.017	.067	.423	.496	.301	.385	.419	.805
Ryan Kreidler	4.1	.600	.164	.026	.088	.428	.983	.241	.329	.373	.702

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.651	.212	.016	.162	.360	1.307	.248	.310	.421	.731
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.782	.252	.028	.200	.295	.820	.305	.357	.525	.882
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.655	.178	.022	.206	.268	1.193	.263	.317	.471	.788
Salvador Perez	4.3	.656	.177	.003	.191	.161	.928	.256	.297	.444	.741
Michael Massey	4.2	.707	.214	.012	.135	.177	.790	.271	.308	.434	.742
Nick Loftin	4.0	.637	.185	.025	.095	.333	.679	.257	.329	.399	.728
Isaac Collins	3.9	.585	.175	.018	.078	.391	.964	.245	.332	.373	.705
John Rave	3.8	.552	.148	.029	.103	.310	1.052	.238	.304	.385	.689
Kyle Isbel	3.7	.613	.162	.037	.070	.195	.826	.254	.301	.382	.683

Data notes: home starter Randy Dobnak: only 69 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Randy Dobnak: only 37 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections