San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Landen Roupp vs Seth Lugo · 70°F

3.5% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

56.6%

Kansas City Royals win

43.4%

Fair line (home)

+130

Proj. total

8.69

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.79)Kansas City Royals (mean 3.90)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.69

Over

47.1%

Under

52.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	56.6%	-118	-130
Kansas City Royals	43.4%	+109	+130

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.9	1.179	.231	.047	.043	.262	.180	.326	.366	.424	.790
Bryce Eldridge	4.8	.752	.224	.006	.156	.468	1.249	.265	.342	.429	.771
Heliot Ramos	4.7	.804	.200	.030	.154	.350	1.032	.278	.341	.447	.788
Rafael Devers	4.6	.647	.207	.009	.189	.521	1.046	.262	.352	.459	.811
Casey Schmitt	4.5	.759	.194	.012	.149	.247	.832	.267	.317	.427	.744
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.879	.226	.047	.063	.268	.400	.300	.348	.425	.774
Willy Adames	4.3	.603	.180	.014	.147	.422	.974	.249	.328	.420	.748
Drew Gilbert	4.1	.643	.183	.028	.089	.349	.695	.253	.327	.389	.717
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.591	.160	.007	.077	.396	1.102	.235	.323	.349	.672

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.681	.216	.015	.109	.523	1.184	.249	.336	.389	.725
Lane Thomas	4.5	.641	.213	.012	.100	.497	1.079	.243	.334	.378	.712
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.4	.678	.207	.022	.123	.498	.680	.265	.354	.425	.779
Salvador Perez	4.3	.692	.178	.003	.130	.255	.846	.251	.306	.394	.701
Michael Massey	4.2	.718	.212	.010	.083	.251	.714	.261	.311	.384	.694
Isaac Collins	4.1	.603	.174	.020	.054	.567	.887	.245	.360	.353	.713
Starling Marte	4.0	.769	.164	.012	.062	.309	.870	.277	.345	.380	.725
Josh Rojas	3.9	.605	.176	.012	.048	.387	.798	.242	.321	.341	.662
Andrew Velazquez	3.8	.590	.142	.013	.041	.250	1.079	.225	.281	.308	.590

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections