Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 7, 2026 · Kevin Gausman vs Daniel Lynch IV · 86°F

5.6% edge · Kansas City Royals

Chicago Cubs win

54.8%

Kansas City Royals win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

9.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.14)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.41)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.55

Over

45.1%

Under

54.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	54.8%	-161	-121
Kansas City Royals	45.2%	+148	+121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.769	.217	.046	.206	.392	1.101	.276	.345	.482	.827
Seiya Suzuki	4.9	.751	.211	.019	.183	.563	1.108	.273	.362	.460	.822
Alex Bregman	4.8	.757	.198	.011	.139	.555	.614	.267	.362	.421	.783
Michael Busch	4.6	.658	.181	.029	.179	.586	.993	.263	.367	.457	.823
Nico Hoerner	4.5	.918	.218	.013	.053	.354	.365	.292	.356	.389	.745
Ian Happ	4.4	.609	.176	.011	.146	.573	1.083	.247	.353	.414	.767
Carson Kelly	4.3	.698	.165	.009	.126	.444	.736	.261	.345	.407	.752
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.800	.170	.027	.072	.278	.705	.276	.333	.390	.722
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.636	.141	.021	.135	.402	.908	.255	.332	.415	.747

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.663	.219	.017	.159	.421	1.217	.252	.323	.426	.749
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.770	.245	.031	.210	.354	.772	.304	.363	.531	.893
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.671	.180	.023	.206	.313	1.141	.266	.324	.474	.798
Salvador Perez	4.3	.691	.175	.004	.189	.188	.874	.260	.301	.444	.745
Isaac Collins	4.2	.622	.185	.021	.084	.499	.949	.250	.347	.381	.729
Nick Loftin	4.1	.668	.180	.024	.094	.399	.626	.264	.343	.403	.746
Michael Massey	4.0	.676	.201	.008	.126	.197	.698	.268	.309	.426	.735
Starling Marte	3.9	.718	.164	.013	.089	.249	.876	.276	.332	.403	.735
Tyler Tolbert	3.8	.627	.155	.015	.052	.234	.942	.244	.298	.342	.640

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections