Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 6, 2026 · Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha · 80°F

1.8% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

47.8%

Kansas City Royals win

52.2%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.70)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.59)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.29

Over

43.2%

Under

47.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	47.8%	+113	+109
Kansas City Royals	52.2%	-123	-109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.8	.796	.214	.016	.149	.485	.926	.272	.350	.432	.782
Luke Keaschall	4.7	.871	.225	.016	.081	.427	.643	.283	.360	.402	.761
Kody Clemens	4.6	.665	.196	.037	.202	.303	.949	.257	.312	.462	.774
Josh Bell	4.5	.744	.172	.014	.153	.416	.795	.266	.339	.429	.768
Royce Lewis	4.4	.681	.201	.004	.186	.331	.910	.264	.324	.454	.777
Brooks Lee	4.3	.751	.164	.026	.139	.274	.616	.270	.321	.428	.750
Alan Roden	4.2	.718	.184	.016	.096	.382	.715	.271	.349	.405	.754
Victor Caratini	4.1	.722	.133	.005	.115	.307	.680	.264	.335	.397	.732
Tristan Gray	4.0	.573	.166	.016	.119	.233	1.059	.236	.286	.385	.671

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.698	.219	.016	.172	.362	1.098	.263	.324	.445	.770
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.804	.247	.034	.218	.295	.688	.314	.365	.548	.913
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.700	.186	.025	.225	.266	1.020	.280	.331	.505	.836
Salvador Perez	4.3	.692	.188	.004	.211	.157	.786	.271	.308	.476	.784
Michael Massey	4.2	.739	.212	.010	.143	.168	.663	.279	.313	.446	.758
Isaac Collins	4.0	.641	.191	.020	.088	.406	.842	.262	.347	.400	.747
John Rave	3.9	.601	.163	.030	.117	.321	.941	.253	.318	.413	.732
Josh Rojas	3.8	.625	.187	.014	.078	.272	.749	.256	.312	.383	.695
Kyle Isbel	3.7	.637	.173	.036	.084	.189	.700	.266	.310	.408	.718

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections