Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 8, 2026 · Clay Holmes vs Seth Lugo · 88°F

5.2% edge · Kansas City Royals

Chicago Cubs win

54.4%

Kansas City Royals win

45.6%

Fair line (home)

+119

Proj. total

10.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.44)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.66)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.1

Over

49.6%

Under

40.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	54.4%	-155	-119
Kansas City Royals	45.6%	+142	+119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.821	.231	.051	.229	.358	1.060	.292	.352	.516	.869
Seiya Suzuki	4.9	.771	.223	.018	.204	.514	1.083	.281	.362	.482	.844
Michael Busch	4.8	.702	.201	.034	.203	.543	1.001	.274	.366	.485	.851
Alex Bregman	4.7	.793	.201	.013	.154	.488	.570	.283	.367	.450	.817
Ian Happ	4.5	.637	.194	.021	.172	.565	1.062	.260	.359	.452	.811
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.922	.224	.015	.059	.314	.338	.300	.359	.407	.766
Carson Kelly	4.3	.731	.165	.011	.133	.424	.715	.270	.349	.422	.772
Dansby Swanson	4.2	.680	.159	.020	.158	.392	.898	.268	.341	.446	.786
Tyrone Taylor	4.1	.641	.200	.020	.120	.212	.785	.256	.306	.413	.720

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.722	.230	.016	.133	.516	1.138	.262	.346	.419	.765
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.845	.272	.034	.164	.420	.701	.315	.384	.514	.898
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.720	.198	.027	.167	.377	1.060	.272	.343	.457	.800
Isaac Collins	4.4	.680	.219	.024	.063	.592	.890	.264	.375	.386	.761
Michael Massey	4.3	.766	.226	.011	.112	.239	.680	.276	.322	.420	.743
John Rave	4.2	.627	.173	.035	.091	.460	.998	.250	.337	.389	.726
Nick Loftin	4.1	.674	.201	.027	.070	.452	.561	.272	.363	.402	.766
Josh Rojas	4.0	.642	.191	.015	.059	.396	.764	.255	.334	.366	.700
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.664	.178	.039	.061	.277	.717	.265	.326	.389	.715

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections