Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Randy Dobnak · 96°F

3.3% edge · Kansas City Royals

Chicago Cubs win

57.1%

Kansas City Royals win

42.9%

Fair line (home)

+133

Proj. total

9.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.44)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.42)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

9.86

Over

40.6%

Under

59.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	57.1%	-160	-133
Kansas City Royals	42.9%	+147	+133

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.857	.239	.053	.210	.381	.920	.299	.363	.513	.875
Michael Busch	4.9	.750	.225	.036	.180	.593	.866	.281	.379	.479	.858
Alex Bregman	4.8	.837	.215	.013	.140	.531	.494	.287	.375	.444	.819
Ian Happ	4.7	.708	.213	.019	.152	.595	.966	.270	.371	.445	.815
Michael Conforto	4.6	.699	.204	.011	.144	.516	.892	.264	.356	.428	.784
Nico Hoerner	4.5	.982	.227	.013	.053	.316	.292	.312	.371	.412	.783
Dansby Swanson	4.4	.734	.175	.025	.137	.409	.826	.273	.345	.435	.780
Miguel Amaya	4.3	.706	.192	.010	.112	.361	.693	.268	.346	.412	.758
Tyrone Taylor	4.1	.667	.217	.021	.108	.218	.708	.263	.314	.415	.730

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Loftin	4.6	.748	.210	.031	.110	.430	.668	.266	.344	.411	.755
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.784	.246	.031	.208	.355	.718	.308	.368	.534	.903
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.655	.185	.024	.202	.322	1.100	.264	.326	.471	.797
Salvador Perez	4.3	.684	.173	.004	.203	.195	.816	.264	.311	.460	.771
Starling Marte	4.2	.808	.177	.012	.098	.265	.911	.284	.341	.413	.753
Michael Massey	4.1	.687	.206	.010	.132	.202	.685	.268	.310	.429	.738
Tyler Tolbert	4.0	.650	.175	.015	.055	.254	.959	.243	.301	.344	.645
Luke Maile	3.9	.542	.144	.009	.080	.372	1.050	.225	.310	.342	.652
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.641	.162	.036	.073	.231	.752	.262	.315	.393	.708

Data notes: home starter Randy Dobnak: only 46 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 96F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections