Athletics vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 17, 2026 · Mason Barnett vs Michael Wacha · 88°F

6.0% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

43.4%

Kansas City Royals win

56.6%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

10.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 4.91)Kansas City Royals (mean 5.32)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.23

Over

50.8%

Under

38.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	43.4%	+162	+130
Kansas City Royals	56.6%	-177	-130

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeff McNeil	4.9	.908	.234	.028	.112	.362	.511	.288	.350	.428	.778
Jacob Wilson	4.8	1.032	.265	.007	.116	.262	.364	.318	.361	.457	.818
Lawrence Butler	4.7	.708	.207	.014	.192	.414	1.044	.265	.333	.457	.789
Zack Gelof	4.6	.711	.218	.018	.187	.364	1.134	.273	.337	.468	.805
Carlos Cortes	4.4	.701	.238	.017	.161	.378	.688	.277	.343	.463	.806
Henry Bolte	4.3	.795	.198	.030	.123	.320	1.103	.290	.353	.449	.802
Donovan Walton	4.2	.754	.176	.012	.097	.336	.642	.270	.335	.397	.732
Tommy White	4.1	.775	.206	.014	.105	.184	.607	.282	.321	.423	.744
Brian Serven	4.0	.590	.162	.011	.090	.322	1.069	.234	.304	.358	.662

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.717	.226	.018	.169	.528	1.129	.269	.354	.452	.805
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.853	.263	.034	.206	.432	.702	.325	.394	.553	.946
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.725	.203	.025	.215	.383	1.066	.285	.353	.505	.858
Maikel Garcia	4.4	.828	.227	.030	.096	.440	.599	.299	.371	.444	.815
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.685	.207	.021	.176	.468	.612	.286	.369	.490	.859
Salvador Perez	4.2	.699	.187	.002	.195	.224	.778	.277	.327	.475	.802
Michael Massey	4.1	.738	.216	.009	.128	.246	.663	.286	.334	.448	.782
Isaac Collins	4.0	.612	.191	.020	.077	.535	.809	.265	.374	.401	.775
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.687	.175	.040	.079	.275	.727	.276	.334	.414	.747

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections