Athletics vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Gage Jump vs Randy Dobnak · 83°F

4.4% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

49.0%

Kansas City Royals win

51.0%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

9.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 5.06)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.85)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.9

Over

58.0%

Under

34.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	49.0%	+120	+104
Kansas City Royals	51.0%	-130	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gage Jump LHP · Athletics	4.9	4.2	5.5	2.0	2.5
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.8	3.0	5.9	1.7	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Gage Jump4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 6%

Randy Dobnak4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	5.0	.956	.248	.030	.131	.373	1.108	.303	.368	.459	.827
Jeff McNeil	4.9	.957	.243	.022	.089	.390	.408	.299	.368	.426	.794
Zack Gelof	4.7	.784	.227	.016	.173	.430	.999	.281	.353	.464	.816
Lawrence Butler	4.6	.751	.216	.018	.161	.478	.875	.277	.354	.454	.809
Max Muncy	4.5	.752	.211	.025	.122	.303	1.047	.268	.329	.419	.748
Carlos Cortes	4.4	.740	.236	.015	.132	.384	.611	.281	.349	.446	.795
Brian Serven	4.3	.673	.175	.010	.098	.352	.990	.245	.316	.370	.687
Donovan Walton	4.2	.750	.190	.019	.085	.382	.521	.277	.352	.405	.757
Darell Hernaiz	4.1	.808	.182	.015	.045	.356	.468	.285	.354	.379	.732

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Loftin	4.7	.770	.230	.028	.094	.516	.723	.270	.360	.406	.766
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.824	.274	.029	.184	.435	.773	.316	.387	.530	.917
Maikel Garcia	4.5	.858	.240	.034	.091	.436	.666	.301	.372	.444	.816
Salvador Perez	4.4	.729	.185	.009	.180	.235	.878	.270	.323	.452	.774
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.687	.207	.021	.157	.466	.659	.283	.367	.472	.839
Isaac Collins	4.2	.641	.197	.028	.084	.488	.919	.262	.360	.401	.762
Tyler Tolbert	4.1	.719	.181	.014	.058	.291	.940	.260	.321	.362	.683
Michael Massey	4.0	.708	.207	.013	.124	.218	.704	.282	.326	.445	.771
Luke Maile	3.9	.567	.159	.009	.073	.393	1.082	.237	.325	.353	.678

Data notes: home starter Randy Dobnak: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections