Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Drew Anderson vs Michael Wacha · 84°F

4.1% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

53.9%

Kansas City Royals win

46.1%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

9.24

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.98)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.26)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.24

Over

52.1%

Under

47.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	53.9%	-103	-117
Kansas City Royals	46.1%	-105	+117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Drew Anderson RHP · Detroit Tigers	2.2	2.0	2.2	0.8	0.9
Michael Wacha RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.6	4.2	6.3	1.8	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Drew Anderson4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Michael Wacha4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.9	.901	.229	.031	.131	.541	.590	.298	.380	.457	.837
Gleyber Torres	4.8	.863	.192	.004	.131	.514	.721	.279	.361	.418	.779
Colt Keith	4.7	.870	.205	.040	.142	.349	.762	.291	.348	.456	.804
Dillon Dingler	4.6	.742	.217	.020	.183	.272	.889	.275	.330	.465	.795
Zach McKinstry	4.5	.721	.185	.060	.085	.379	.735	.259	.328	.397	.726
Brett Callahan	4.4	.726	.169	.037	.108	.243	.955	.256	.306	.396	.702
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.558	.192	.005	.189	.433	1.054	.251	.335	.455	.790
Max Clark	4.1	.729	.167	.040	.106	.346	.680	.278	.344	.428	.772
Hao-Yu Lee	4.0	.688	.178	.026	.112	.258	.754	.270	.323	.422	.745

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.621	.213	.023	.136	.479	1.204	.241	.324	.403	.727
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.774	.253	.030	.159	.391	.751	.299	.365	.493	.858
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.693	.201	.021	.186	.326	.992	.274	.335	.474	.809
Salvador Perez	4.3	.677	.175	.007	.151	.218	.824	.253	.305	.415	.719
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.630	.194	.019	.132	.427	.658	.262	.343	.431	.774
Nick Loftin	4.1	.625	.192	.020	.073	.402	.606	.251	.335	.376	.711
Michael Massey	4.0	.683	.203	.016	.098	.205	.690	.267	.310	.409	.719
Tyler Tolbert	3.9	.629	.168	.013	.041	.255	.896	.240	.299	.329	.628
Kyle Isbel	3.7	.617	.158	.037	.060	.254	.746	.254	.311	.374	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections