Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Jacob Waguespack vs Daniel Lynch IV · 80°F

4.7% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

55.4%

Kansas City Royals win

44.6%

Fair line (home)

+124

Proj. total

8.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.79)Kansas City Royals (mean 3.95)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.75

Over

47.8%

Under

52.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	55.4%	-107	-124
Kansas City Royals	44.6%	-101	+124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Waguespack RHP · Detroit Tigers	2.1	1.8	2.1	0.9	0.8
Daniel Lynch IV LHP · Kansas City Royals	2.1	1.4	2.4	0.8	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Waguespack4+ 9%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Daniel Lynch IV4+ 4%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.9	.859	.200	.004	.124	.630	.738	.280	.378	.416	.794
Hao-Yu Lee	4.8	.796	.204	.030	.124	.365	.916	.263	.328	.408	.736
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.799	.211	.029	.118	.636	.582	.288	.390	.443	.833
Eduardo Valencia	4.6	.731	.185	.013	.194	.322	.918	.266	.326	.455	.781
Spencer Torkelson	4.5	.569	.186	.005	.174	.540	1.107	.241	.342	.426	.767
Corey Julks	4.4	.708	.201	.006	.106	.351	.863	.256	.322	.390	.712
Ben Malgeri	4.3	.671	.184	.028	.109	.360	1.015	.258	.330	.405	.735
Max Clark	4.2	.710	.159	.040	.090	.416	.709	.270	.350	.407	.758
Javier Báez	4.0	.695	.168	.014	.091	.176	.791	.255	.297	.378	.675

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Loftin	4.6	.726	.201	.027	.075	.471	.686	.252	.337	.369	.706
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.766	.247	.030	.154	.397	.730	.295	.363	.484	.847
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.4	.660	.202	.019	.133	.445	.662	.259	.341	.423	.763
Salvador Perez	4.3	.665	.167	.007	.156	.214	.825	.249	.299	.412	.711
Isaac Collins	4.2	.612	.174	.034	.064	.480	.885	.243	.340	.362	.701
John Rave	4.1	.588	.163	.028	.089	.398	.944	.237	.316	.370	.685
Tyler Tolbert	4.0	.660	.169	.012	.045	.262	.901	.242	.300	.331	.631
Luke Maile	3.9	.548	.152	.010	.065	.373	1.054	.225	.310	.332	.642
Kyle Isbel	3.7	.614	.160	.034	.058	.252	.734	.251	.308	.367	.674

Data notes: away starter Jacob Waguespack: only 50 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jacob Waguespack: only 57 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections