Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Tyler Phillips vs Randy Dobnak · 97°F

3.8% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

52.5%

Kansas City Royals win

47.5%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

10.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 5.32)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.72)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.05

Over

42.5%

Under

50.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	52.5%	+101	-111
Kansas City Royals	47.5%	-110	+111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Phillips RHP · Miami Marlins	3.2	2.0	3.8	1.2	1.7
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.7	3.1	5.8	1.9	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Phillips4+ 14%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Randy Dobnak4+ 38%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	5.0	.768	.235	.042	.191	.485	1.098	.279	.359	.481	.840
Griffin Conine	4.9	.783	.209	.013	.208	.482	1.119	.281	.360	.479	.839
Heriberto Hernández	4.8	.736	.216	.022	.180	.476	.983	.273	.354	.462	.816
Jakob Marsee	4.6	.745	.193	.050	.091	.553	.735	.269	.367	.410	.777
Owen Caissie	4.5	.713	.230	.014	.167	.426	1.171	.277	.352	.464	.816
Otto Lopez	4.4	.940	.214	.039	.077	.291	.453	.310	.360	.437	.797
Joe Mack	4.3	.693	.178	.012	.158	.356	.823	.265	.333	.438	.771
Graham Pauley	4.2	.633	.214	.016	.106	.362	.738	.254	.325	.402	.727
Javier Sanoja	4.1	.777	.257	.035	.065	.237	.275	.296	.340	.432	.771

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.667	.234	.024	.150	.502	1.106	.257	.340	.431	.771
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.829	.265	.032	.172	.412	.682	.313	.380	.517	.897
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.744	.219	.021	.192	.347	.930	.286	.348	.490	.838
Salvador Perez	4.4	.724	.187	.010	.165	.218	.780	.266	.315	.438	.753
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.3	.672	.210	.022	.147	.437	.591	.277	.357	.459	.816
Nick Loftin	4.2	.684	.200	.026	.076	.432	.560	.268	.353	.398	.751
Josh Rojas	4.1	.667	.207	.012	.057	.362	.724	.256	.327	.366	.692
Isaac Collins	4.0	.599	.181	.032	.069	.487	.785	.258	.359	.390	.748
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.659	.172	.039	.061	.256	.718	.262	.319	.384	.703

Data notes: game-time temp 97F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections