Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Michael Wacha · 96°F

1.2% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

49.9%

Kansas City Royals win

50.1%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.86)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.61)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.46

Over

44.2%

Under

45.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	49.9%	+101	+100
Kansas City Royals	50.1%	-110	-100

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	5.9	4.5	6.9	1.7	3.0
Michael Wacha RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.7	4.6	6.3	1.6	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Sandy Alcantara4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 8%

Michael Wacha4+ 69%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.8	.703	.206	.021	.221	.416	1.187	.262	.331	.469	.800
Kyle Stowers	4.7	.677	.211	.040	.210	.389	1.254	.265	.333	.479	.813
Otto Lopez	4.6	.970	.228	.043	.094	.261	.544	.308	.351	.446	.797
Griffin Conine	4.5	.672	.187	.013	.225	.381	1.216	.268	.335	.485	.820
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.820	.266	.034	.083	.230	.349	.289	.329	.429	.758
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.669	.165	.043	.098	.454	.817	.257	.344	.401	.744
Agustín Ramírez	4.2	.645	.217	.017	.139	.293	.765	.263	.321	.436	.758
Joe Mack	4.1	.623	.157	.008	.163	.286	.924	.253	.311	.429	.739
Graham Pauley	4.0	.564	.186	.015	.113	.287	.798	.241	.302	.393	.695

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.689	.228	.020	.146	.408	1.137	.258	.328	.426	.753
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.821	.269	.030	.175	.340	.696	.312	.369	.518	.888
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.749	.209	.021	.201	.275	.943	.288	.340	.496	.837
Salvador Perez	4.3	.727	.179	.009	.169	.185	.769	.268	.314	.442	.756
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.692	.209	.020	.148	.364	.605	.281	.349	.463	.811
Michael Massey	4.1	.737	.219	.015	.108	.187	.638	.277	.314	.424	.738
Josh Rojas	4.0	.688	.217	.015	.065	.301	.720	.267	.326	.387	.713
Isaac Collins	3.9	.614	.184	.040	.065	.408	.763	.264	.352	.397	.749
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.658	.177	.037	.068	.224	.705	.267	.317	.397	.714

Data notes: game-time temp 96F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections