Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Eury Pérez vs Noah Cameron · 97°F

2.0% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

51.1%

Kansas City Royals win

48.9%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

8.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.67)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.94

Over

39.8%

Under

50.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	51.1%	-100	-104
Kansas City Royals	48.9%	-108	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.1	5.2	4.9	1.8	2.3
Noah Cameron LHP · Kansas City Royals	5.4	4.5	5.8	1.7	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Eury Pérez4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 15%

Noah Cameron4+ 66%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.8	.670	.202	.022	.212	.459	1.239	.255	.331	.458	.789
Otto Lopez	4.7	.976	.223	.046	.094	.292	.595	.303	.350	.439	.789
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.643	.196	.034	.197	.411	1.270	.257	.332	.463	.795
Agustín Ramírez	4.5	.685	.230	.015	.156	.338	.845	.263	.325	.439	.764
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.808	.266	.035	.073	.256	.375	.286	.331	.421	.751
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.653	.154	.040	.093	.485	.854	.250	.345	.387	.733
Esteury Ruiz	4.2	.649	.179	.024	.113	.344	.986	.256	.332	.406	.738
Jared Serna	4.1	.655	.176	.013	.071	.273	.657	.242	.299	.352	.652
Joe Mack	4.0	.598	.158	.008	.161	.291	.932	.255	.315	.436	.751

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.6	.573	.203	.017	.151	.459	1.373	.231	.312	.399	.711
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.719	.244	.027	.189	.400	.844	.293	.362	.507	.869
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.645	.181	.019	.200	.336	1.134	.262	.327	.468	.794
Salvador Perez	4.3	.630	.164	.008	.179	.211	.976	.247	.298	.428	.725
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.598	.185	.018	.153	.425	.741	.259	.341	.443	.783
Nick Loftin	4.0	.593	.181	.022	.078	.417	.726	.244	.333	.372	.705
Michael Massey	3.9	.632	.186	.014	.110	.201	.792	.254	.297	.400	.697
John Rave	3.8	.507	.153	.027	.092	.376	1.006	.228	.308	.368	.677
Kyle Isbel	3.7	.576	.157	.034	.067	.256	.846	.245	.304	.370	.674

Data notes: game-time temp 97F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections