Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Max Scherzer vs Seth Lugo · 97°F

2.0% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.5%

Kansas City Royals win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

10.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.35)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.90)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.25

Over

50.9%

Under

49.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	51.5%	-102	-106
Kansas City Royals	48.5%	-106	+106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.3	3.7	4.8	1.3	2.4
Seth Lugo RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.1	3.2	6.3	1.7	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Max Scherzer4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Seth Lugo4+ 39%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	5.0	.979	.203	.023	.038	.508	.971	.279	.357	.361	.718
George Springer	4.9	.824	.220	.018	.201	.467	.776	.290	.365	.487	.852
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.8	.909	.249	.003	.198	.516	.502	.324	.404	.526	.929
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.894	.191	.007	.151	.481	.494	.299	.376	.458	.834
Nathan Lukes	4.6	.916	.217	.014	.114	.324	.593	.300	.356	.440	.796
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.659	.207	.005	.214	.374	.912	.269	.339	.483	.822
Andrés Giménez	4.3	.815	.203	.014	.099	.216	.656	.281	.334	.413	.746
Ernie Clement	4.2	.880	.237	.017	.081	.180	.342	.303	.337	.431	.768
Myles Straw	4.1	.772	.187	.015	.039	.323	.608	.269	.330	.357	.687

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.624	.220	.021	.202	.438	1.182	.254	.328	.461	.789
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.791	.253	.029	.215	.371	.714	.312	.373	.544	.917
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.717	.209	.017	.243	.284	.990	.290	.342	.527	.869
Salvador Perez	4.3	.694	.177	.010	.211	.183	.814	.268	.310	.471	.781
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.650	.206	.020	.185	.372	.615	.279	.348	.489	.838
Michael Massey	4.1	.700	.220	.015	.138	.186	.672	.275	.311	.445	.756
John Rave	4.0	.588	.173	.031	.122	.344	.907	.252	.320	.418	.737
Josh Rojas	3.9	.641	.201	.014	.074	.307	.750	.261	.323	.388	.711
Isaac Collins	3.8	.577	.180	.035	.076	.402	.784	.261	.347	.404	.752

Data notes: game-time temp 97F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections