Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Spencer Arrighetti vs Randy Dobnak · 92°F

1.2% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

54.3%

Kansas City Royals win

45.7%

Fair line (home)

+119

Proj. total

10.11

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 5.46)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.11

Over

50.1%

Under

49.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	54.3%	-118	-119
Kansas City Royals	45.7%	+109	+119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Spencer Arrighetti RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.7	4.2	4.9	2.2	2.5
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.8	2.6	6.1	1.9	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Spencer Arrighetti4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Randy Dobnak4+ 26%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	5.0	1.056	.210	.026	.036	.566	.811	.299	.382	.383	.765
Nathan Lukes	4.9	1.048	.240	.015	.105	.361	.527	.311	.368	.441	.808
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.8	.954	.262	.002	.172	.553	.427	.330	.414	.516	.930
Jesús Sánchez	4.7	.812	.258	.014	.144	.409	.804	.289	.360	.459	.818
Kazuma Okamoto	4.6	.738	.216	.005	.191	.417	.814	.279	.352	.472	.824
Sean Keys	4.5	.695	.195	.024	.162	.403	.928	.269	.349	.451	.800
Josh Smith	4.4	.770	.196	.017	.081	.443	.623	.276	.363	.400	.763
Andrés Giménez	4.3	.830	.204	.012	.080	.222	.561	.286	.341	.405	.746
Brandon Valenzuela	4.2	.658	.176	.006	.123	.349	.808	.255	.324	.403	.727

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
John Rave	4.7	.678	.184	.034	.138	.496	1.070	.247	.332	.406	.738
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.783	.255	.027	.196	.456	.741	.309	.385	.528	.913
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.678	.213	.020	.180	.492	.668	.276	.362	.476	.839
Salvador Perez	4.4	.688	.183	.006	.199	.238	.856	.265	.320	.461	.781
Josh Rojas	4.3	.673	.213	.016	.084	.395	.844	.257	.330	.386	.717
Nick Loftin	4.2	.637	.181	.027	.092	.455	.625	.257	.350	.397	.747
Isaac Collins	4.1	.595	.187	.033	.071	.517	.850	.255	.362	.388	.750
Luke Maile	4.0	.561	.149	.010	.079	.397	1.068	.229	.318	.345	.663
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.628	.163	.040	.077	.270	.776	.258	.318	.392	.711

Data notes: game-time temp 92F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections