Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Zac Gallen vs Daniel Lynch IV · 82°F

4.3% edge · Kansas City Royals

Arizona Diamondbacks win

47.9%

Kansas City Royals win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.98)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.90)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.88

Over

58.4%

Under

41.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	47.9%	-114	+109
Kansas City Royals	52.1%	+105	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zac Gallen RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.1	3.7	6.0	1.7	2.8
Daniel Lynch IV LHP · Kansas City Royals	2.1	1.2	2.5	0.7	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Zac Gallen4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Daniel Lynch IV4+ 2%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.9	.949	.196	.048	.082	.286	.462	.277	.325	.394	.719
Ketel Marte	4.8	.834	.222	.025	.196	.485	.639	.299	.379	.500	.879
Geraldo Perdomo	4.7	.848	.174	.044	.085	.625	.521	.286	.390	.414	.804
Nolan Arenado	4.6	.747	.195	.015	.153	.391	.699	.266	.336	.430	.765
Tim Tawa	4.5	.678	.185	.015	.150	.370	.966	.251	.318	.413	.731
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.4	.808	.208	.015	.125	.284	.642	.285	.340	.437	.776
James McCann	4.3	.736	.196	.008	.124	.250	.925	.269	.321	.416	.738
Jordan Lawlar	4.2	.626	.182	.025	.112	.324	1.030	.251	.320	.401	.721
Lars Nootbaar	4.0	.633	.175	.020	.112	.590	.687	.274	.385	.435	.820

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.685	.242	.025	.167	.498	1.106	.268	.348	.457	.806
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.849	.281	.034	.180	.393	.662	.323	.386	.536	.923
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.748	.236	.022	.153	.425	.594	.288	.361	.471	.832
Salvador Perez	4.4	.734	.198	.009	.169	.210	.769	.271	.318	.448	.766
Michael Massey	4.3	.793	.239	.018	.120	.211	.640	.290	.330	.448	.777
Nick Loftin	4.2	.705	.198	.032	.088	.398	.572	.276	.354	.417	.771
John Rave	4.1	.636	.189	.033	.097	.367	.854	.260	.331	.409	.740
Kyle Isbel	4.0	.708	.195	.040	.070	.248	.714	.277	.328	.409	.738
Isaac Collins	3.8	.624	.186	.037	.055	.431	.732	.269	.360	.396	.757

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections