Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Corbin Burnes vs Michael Wacha · 98°F

5.2% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

57.3%

Kansas City Royals win

42.7%

Fair line (home)

+134

Proj. total

10.11

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.60)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.11

Over

50.6%

Under

40.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	57.3%	-113	-134
Kansas City Royals	42.7%	+105	+134

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Corbin Burnes RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.0	4.5	5.4	1.5	2.3
Michael Wacha RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.5	3.9	6.6	1.9	3.2

Strikeout ladder

Corbin Burnes4+ 68%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Michael Wacha4+ 56%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	5.0	.823	.241	.028	.153	.600	.846	.285	.374	.457	.831
Ketel Marte	4.9	.858	.235	.033	.228	.424	.632	.307	.374	.530	.904
Gabriel Moreno	4.8	.960	.257	.016	.134	.432	.645	.316	.383	.476	.859
Geraldo Perdomo	4.7	.886	.173	.057	.099	.521	.513	.295	.380	.437	.818
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.648	.190	.120	.191	.471	.818	.284	.366	.532	.898
Nolan Arenado	4.5	.765	.196	.014	.173	.308	.652	.279	.335	.459	.794
Tommy Troy	4.3	.759	.187	.039	.100	.318	.897	.272	.331	.414	.745
Tim Tawa	4.2	.654	.178	.018	.153	.296	.902	.257	.313	.429	.742
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.1	.699	.198	.025	.083	.335	.969	.270	.340	.404	.744

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.660	.242	.022	.148	.469	1.235	.256	.334	.431	.765
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.840	.273	.030	.151	.375	.762	.312	.374	.501	.875
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.712	.228	.022	.146	.425	.685	.278	.353	.456	.808
Salvador Perez	4.3	.732	.184	.007	.152	.206	.857	.264	.310	.425	.735
Michael Massey	4.2	.754	.243	.016	.094	.206	.724	.276	.316	.416	.732
Nick Loftin	4.1	.663	.198	.028	.075	.401	.645	.262	.344	.393	.736
Isaac Collins	4.0	.634	.203	.037	.060	.446	.858	.265	.355	.394	.749
Matthew Lugo	3.9	.586	.196	.037	.097	.209	1.096	.249	.296	.402	.698
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.671	.178	.037	.061	.242	.768	.269	.322	.392	.713

Data notes: away starter Corbin Burnes: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Corbin Burnes: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 98F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections