Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Derek Law vs Noah Cameron · 94°F

2.4% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

51.5%

Kansas City Royals win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.78

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.13)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.64)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.78

Over

47.3%

Under

42.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	51.5%	-101	-106
Kansas City Royals	48.5%	-109	+106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Derek Law RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	2.1	1.7	2.4	0.7	1.0
Noah Cameron LHP · Kansas City Royals	5.3	3.7	6.2	1.7	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Derek Law4+ 8%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Noah Cameron4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geraldo Perdomo	4.9	.926	.189	.040	.101	.550	.565	.290	.377	.422	.799
Ketel Marte	4.8	.836	.238	.020	.214	.419	.666	.301	.371	.513	.884
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.934	.256	.013	.124	.474	.673	.316	.389	.472	.861
Nolan Arenado	4.6	.779	.195	.014	.172	.345	.702	.275	.334	.449	.784
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.5	.833	.220	.018	.138	.264	.669	.288	.336	.448	.784
Ildemaro Vargas	4.4	.853	.175	.041	.078	.210	.423	.277	.317	.395	.712
Tim Tawa	4.3	.662	.172	.016	.158	.330	.936	.257	.319	.431	.750
Jordan Lawlar	4.2	.637	.189	.029	.117	.299	1.041	.255	.318	.411	.729
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.0	.671	.194	.026	.082	.353	.974	.267	.342	.403	.744

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.662	.230	.021	.154	.505	1.141	.257	.341	.434	.775
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.837	.271	.030	.157	.407	.685	.315	.382	.510	.892
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.707	.224	.024	.145	.448	.618	.277	.356	.456	.812
Salvador Perez	4.3	.728	.190	.007	.161	.220	.790	.268	.318	.438	.756
Michael Massey	4.2	.789	.245	.018	.100	.228	.658	.290	.333	.436	.769
Nick Loftin	4.1	.684	.198	.025	.075	.411	.578	.268	.351	.397	.749
John Rave	4.0	.615	.186	.031	.091	.379	.871	.255	.330	.399	.728
Matthew Lugo	3.9	.594	.202	.040	.093	.227	1.020	.255	.306	.409	.715
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.663	.183	.037	.063	.248	.719	.269	.324	.396	.720

Data notes: away starter Derek Law: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Derek Law: only 8 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections