Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Anthony Kay vs Daniel Lynch IV · 70°F

3.2% edge · Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox win

48.2%

Kansas City Royals win

51.8%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

9.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.72)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.29

Over

60.6%

Under

39.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	48.2%	-110	+107
Kansas City Royals	51.8%	+102	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.8	3.3	5.4	1.7	2.5
Daniel Lynch IV LHP · Kansas City Royals	2.1	1.7	2.2	0.9	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Kay4+ 42%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Daniel Lynch IV4+ 7%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Miguel Vargas	4.9	.664	.220	.012	.176	.655	.789	.256	.364	.441	.805
Tommy Pham	4.8	.758	.178	.021	.115	.494	1.053	.252	.334	.384	.718
Randal Grichuk	4.7	.734	.228	.020	.176	.298	.889	.268	.321	.452	.773
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.504	.120	.007	.220	.742	1.361	.226	.360	.437	.797
Chase Meidroth	4.5	.786	.175	.004	.081	.512	.731	.269	.362	.379	.741
Kyle Teel	4.4	.710	.154	.008	.114	.520	1.034	.260	.357	.396	.752
Brenton Doyle	4.3	.658	.155	.014	.106	.303	1.100	.237	.296	.365	.661
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.483	.143	.007	.170	.400	1.198	.220	.309	.403	.712
Braden Montgomery	4.0	.627	.178	.025	.084	.386	.886	.256	.336	.390	.726

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.631	.209	.023	.162	.512	1.119	.250	.338	.430	.768
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.779	.250	.027	.157	.439	.699	.300	.375	.491	.866
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.723	.202	.017	.182	.339	.973	.279	.346	.473	.819
Maikel Garcia	4.3	.802	.208	.030	.072	.389	.597	.284	.353	.408	.760
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.648	.185	.016	.149	.443	.590	.268	.353	.446	.798
Salvador Perez	4.1	.666	.166	.005	.147	.220	.748	.258	.314	.420	.734
Michael Massey	4.0	.705	.188	.013	.104	.216	.648	.268	.314	.408	.722
Nick Loftin	3.9	.609	.167	.020	.071	.400	.584	.253	.341	.375	.716
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.625	.156	.034	.066	.256	.746	.253	.313	.374	.687

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections