Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Bryan Hudson vs Seth Lugo · 71°F

0.1% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

52.3%

Kansas City Royals win

47.7%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.92)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.3

Over

52.9%

Under

47.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	52.3%	-114	-110
Kansas City Royals	47.7%	+105	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryan Hudson LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.2	1.9	2.2	0.8	0.9
Seth Lugo RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.2	4.6	5.5	2.1	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Bryan Hudson4+ 11%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Seth Lugo4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.9	.914	.220	.034	.084	.422	.699	.288	.373	.413	.785
Kyle Teel	4.8	.806	.171	.008	.146	.508	1.161	.265	.350	.411	.761
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.653	.224	.012	.181	.577	.776	.261	.359	.454	.813
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.528	.127	.010	.252	.662	1.374	.235	.351	.466	.817
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.752	.187	.015	.129	.376	.801	.264	.330	.412	.742
Tristan Peters	4.4	.724	.210	.028	.100	.342	.761	.266	.331	.407	.738
Chase Meidroth	4.3	.784	.178	.004	.083	.430	.711	.276	.358	.391	.748
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.500	.146	.008	.196	.348	1.224	.227	.303	.426	.729
Braden Montgomery	4.0	.626	.176	.029	.102	.351	.906	.256	.328	.404	.732

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.584	.199	.019	.161	.542	1.255	.236	.330	.413	.743
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.719	.230	.020	.164	.470	.801	.281	.361	.470	.832
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.676	.183	.015	.188	.355	1.084	.265	.333	.458	.791
Maikel Garcia	4.3	.724	.205	.030	.083	.419	.681	.269	.342	.401	.743
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.2	.615	.179	.015	.146	.474	.659	.258	.348	.433	.781
Salvador Perez	4.1	.626	.156	.005	.149	.227	.845	.246	.300	.407	.708
Michael Massey	4.0	.661	.184	.012	.108	.230	.717	.258	.306	.400	.706
John Rave	3.9	.514	.145	.023	.097	.417	.949	.227	.314	.367	.681
Isaac Collins	3.8	.524	.158	.022	.056	.472	.824	.235	.344	.350	.693

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections