Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · David Sandlin vs Randy Dobnak · 73°F

2.1% edge · Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox win

53.0%

Kansas City Royals win

47.0%

Fair line (home)

+113

Proj. total

9.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 5.32)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.95

Over

48.5%

Under

41.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	53.0%	-128	-113
Kansas City Royals	47.0%	+118	+113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
David Sandlin RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.6	3.3	5.0	1.9	2.4
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.7	3.1	5.5	2.2	2.7

Strikeout ladder

David Sandlin4+ 43%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Randy Dobnak4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	5.0	.974	.230	.038	.072	.453	.584	.299	.388	.418	.806
Kyle Teel	4.9	.853	.190	.010	.128	.579	1.020	.276	.370	.415	.785
Miguel Vargas	4.8	.729	.241	.013	.158	.623	.654	.276	.378	.455	.833
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.572	.141	.009	.232	.745	1.224	.245	.373	.464	.837
Andrew Benintendi	4.6	.822	.203	.018	.120	.414	.685	.280	.349	.423	.772
Tristan Peters	4.5	.773	.222	.030	.100	.374	.656	.277	.347	.420	.767
Chase Meidroth	4.4	.819	.177	.004	.075	.469	.613	.280	.368	.386	.754
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.558	.163	.009	.179	.392	1.096	.240	.324	.429	.753
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.678	.192	.030	.086	.389	.793	.266	.343	.404	.747

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.608	.208	.019	.195	.541	1.139	.250	.341	.452	.793
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.753	.256	.023	.183	.453	.687	.298	.373	.508	.881
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.666	.206	.015	.192	.487	.621	.275	.359	.481	.840
Salvador Perez	4.3	.682	.166	.007	.184	.236	.799	.257	.310	.439	.748
Michael Massey	4.2	.731	.202	.013	.126	.236	.668	.270	.315	.423	.738
Nick Loftin	4.1	.630	.191	.022	.088	.450	.616	.256	.345	.394	.739
John Rave	4.0	.585	.163	.025	.113	.425	.888	.248	.331	.402	.734
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.628	.153	.032	.077	.288	.756	.248	.310	.373	.683
Isaac Collins	3.8	.541	.159	.025	.061	.495	.780	.242	.351	.362	.713

Data notes: away starter David Sandlin: only 58 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections