Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Gavin Williams vs Noah Cameron · 65°F

2.8% edge · Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians win

53.5%

Kansas City Royals win

46.5%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

8.38

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.48)Kansas City Royals (mean 3.89)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.38

Over

52.3%

Under

35.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	53.5%	-135	-115
Kansas City Royals	46.5%	+125	+115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5.9	5.1	1.9	2.2
Noah Cameron LHP · Kansas City Royals	5.4	4.0	5.7	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Gavin Williams4+ 86%6+ 56%8+ 24%

Noah Cameron4+ 57%6+ 21%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.8	.979	.194	.017	.060	.503	.424	.290	.369	.385	.754
José Ramírez	4.7	.789	.228	.008	.155	.402	.550	.275	.342	.440	.782
Chase DeLauter	4.6	.841	.248	.025	.136	.439	.653	.301	.370	.470	.840
Jo Adell	4.5	.660	.189	.011	.189	.272	1.051	.252	.309	.438	.748
Angel Martínez	4.4	.709	.216	.015	.122	.189	.871	.255	.297	.402	.699
David Fry	4.3	.571	.169	.009	.134	.405	1.047	.230	.313	.384	.697
Travis Bazzana	4.2	.620	.179	.025	.102	.451	.910	.251	.340	.396	.736
Austin Hedges	4.1	.611	.139	.005	.087	.353	.857	.228	.302	.339	.642
Brayan Rocchio	4.0	.664	.173	.015	.076	.251	.601	.255	.317	.374	.691

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.5	.537	.187	.020	.145	.491	1.484	.221	.309	.385	.693
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.4	.704	.222	.021	.144	.430	.955	.274	.350	.449	.800
Jac Caglianone	4.3	.629	.185	.013	.166	.321	1.289	.251	.315	.429	.745
Maikel Garcia	4.2	.711	.197	.028	.069	.404	.813	.263	.336	.384	.720
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.1	.587	.175	.013	.135	.453	.798	.249	.338	.416	.754
Salvador Perez	4.0	.596	.141	.005	.135	.212	1.004	.234	.287	.381	.668
Michael Massey	3.9	.629	.180	.010	.095	.210	.856	.248	.293	.380	.673
John Rave	3.8	.507	.142	.022	.086	.384	1.090	.223	.305	.354	.660
Kyle Isbel	3.7	.545	.141	.029	.055	.246	.961	.227	.286	.334	.620

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections