Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Sam Aldegheri · 76°F

3.3% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Boston Red Sox win

57.6%

Los Angeles Angels win

42.4%

Fair line (home)

+136

Proj. total

8.83

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.90)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.93)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.83

Over

46.3%

Under

53.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	57.6%	-165	-136
Los Angeles Angels	42.4%	+151	+136

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.9	.679	.193	.021	.083	.645	.926	.231	.340	.345	.685
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.8	.770	.231	.035	.155	.293	.883	.267	.323	.439	.762
Wilyer Abreu	4.7	.677	.212	.014	.193	.579	.933	.267	.361	.466	.828
Willson Contreras	4.6	.628	.188	.020	.208	.538	1.027	.267	.376	.485	.862
Caleb Durbin	4.5	.712	.218	.019	.094	.368	.480	.261	.342	.396	.738
Romy Gonzalez	4.4	.750	.204	.032	.142	.306	.950	.280	.337	.452	.789
Jarren Duran	4.3	.586	.209	.058	.129	.412	.937	.258	.339	.445	.783
Andruw Monasterio	4.2	.652	.186	.007	.078	.439	.838	.251	.338	.370	.708
Connor Wong	4.0	.617	.191	.009	.085	.347	.888	.248	.322	.375	.697

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.640	.207	.014	.172	.344	1.241	.249	.319	.430	.749
Denzer Guzman	4.5	.707	.188	.017	.101	.298	1.209	.244	.299	.371	.670
Nolan Schanuel	4.4	.802	.187	.005	.102	.417	.669	.282	.359	.411	.770
Jorge Soler	4.3	.555	.168	.010	.160	.407	1.257	.234	.314	.409	.723
Josh Lowe	4.2	.613	.186	.014	.126	.313	1.215	.245	.305	.399	.704
Jo Adell	4.1	.570	.155	.009	.193	.228	1.091	.246	.299	.445	.744
Wade Meckler	3.9	.702	.162	.014	.057	.393	.910	.265	.342	.367	.709
Donovan Walton	3.8	.641	.138	.012	.073	.309	.707	.248	.315	.357	.673
Tyler Heineman	3.7	.598	.117	.014	.054	.252	.876	.231	.297	.322	.619

Data notes: home starter Sam Aldegheri: only 37 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections