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5.4% edge · Los Angeles AngelsBoston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds
July 5, 2026 · Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson · 78°F
Boston Red Sox win
53.8%
Los Angeles Angels win
46.2%
Fair line (home)
+117
Proj. total
8.38
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 4.49)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.89)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.38
Over
42.1%
Under
49.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 53.8% | -153 | -117 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 46.2% | +140 | +117 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler | 4.9 | .669 | .187 | .025 | .083 | .637 | .982 | .231 | .339 | .348 | .687 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.8 | .758 | .223 | .035 | .143 | .258 | .942 | .262 | .312 | .426 | .738 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.6 | .676 | .207 | .016 | .178 | .517 | .994 | .263 | .349 | .452 | .801 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.5 | .614 | .178 | .017 | .193 | .496 | 1.099 | .256 | .357 | .458 | .815 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.4 | .798 | .195 | .016 | .113 | .364 | .553 | .281 | .351 | .423 | .773 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.3 | .683 | .225 | .019 | .083 | .328 | .483 | .260 | .334 | .392 | .726 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.2 | .602 | .199 | .057 | .116 | .365 | 1.005 | .256 | .329 | .430 | .759 |
| Carlos Narváez | 4.1 | .553 | .162 | .005 | .108 | .439 | 1.045 | .229 | .319 | .366 | .685 |
| Tsung-Che Cheng | 4.0 | .542 | .137 | .027 | .056 | .403 | .988 | .215 | .299 | .316 | .614 |
Los Angeles Angels — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | 4.5 | .654 | .206 | .013 | .162 | .351 | 1.159 | .253 | .326 | .429 | .754 |
| Denzer Guzman | 4.4 | .711 | .193 | .019 | .096 | .316 | 1.130 | .250 | .309 | .377 | .686 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 4.3 | .802 | .210 | .007 | .093 | .322 | .753 | .281 | .342 | .408 | .750 |
| Jorge Soler | 4.2 | .547 | .166 | .010 | .151 | .406 | 1.176 | .233 | .314 | .403 | .717 |
| Oswald Peraza | 4.1 | .652 | .133 | .021 | .107 | .266 | 1.005 | .241 | .300 | .372 | .672 |
| Jo Adell | 4.0 | .584 | .151 | .010 | .178 | .236 | 1.005 | .248 | .302 | .438 | .739 |
| Jose Siri | 3.9 | .520 | .140 | .021 | .124 | .252 | 1.296 | .223 | .280 | .377 | .658 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 3.8 | .590 | .119 | .007 | .129 | .272 | .994 | .244 | .306 | .394 | .700 |
| Josh Lowe | 3.6 | .539 | .165 | .014 | .102 | .274 | 1.017 | .244 | .304 | .392 | .697 |
Data notes: home starter Ryan Johnson: only 61 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ryan Johnson: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections