Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña · 82°F

3.0% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Cleveland Guardians win

54.6%

Los Angeles Angels win

45.4%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

8.81

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.77)Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.03)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.81

Over

56.5%

Under

32.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	54.6%	-142	-120
Los Angeles Angels	45.4%	+131	+120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	6.6	5.1	2.1	2.3
Walbert Ureña RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.7	3.5	4.9	2.5	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Gavin Williams4+ 91%6+ 66%8+ 34%

Walbert Ureña4+ 47%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.9	.934	.194	.021	.061	.652	.419	.286	.386	.384	.770
Travis Bazzana	4.8	.686	.199	.037	.098	.676	1.028	.250	.364	.389	.753
José Ramírez	4.7	.715	.212	.013	.172	.614	.517	.274	.375	.460	.835
Jo Adell	4.6	.629	.186	.015	.216	.363	1.040	.253	.327	.462	.789
Nathaniel Lowe	4.5	.689	.176	.007	.144	.614	.975	.265	.370	.427	.797
Angel Martínez	4.4	.674	.201	.018	.117	.283	.870	.250	.309	.395	.704
Patrick Bailey	4.3	.636	.146	.022	.096	.420	1.019	.236	.316	.361	.677
Petey Halpin	4.2	.623	.162	.037	.091	.323	.948	.240	.305	.374	.678
Brayan Rocchio	4.0	.643	.165	.023	.084	.378	.616	.255	.338	.384	.722

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.573	.176	.017	.189	.397	1.432	.233	.313	.422	.735
Mike Trout	4.5	.527	.139	.007	.211	.707	1.396	.238	.366	.449	.815
Moisés Ballesteros	4.4	.691	.178	.007	.137	.384	.950	.256	.326	.409	.734
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.720	.177	.006	.110	.331	.952	.261	.325	.395	.720
Josh Lowe	4.2	.566	.170	.011	.148	.367	1.318	.237	.307	.406	.713
Christian Moore	4.0	.543	.134	.027	.109	.432	1.387	.226	.315	.370	.684
Gustavo Campero	3.9	.576	.141	.015	.130	.274	.930	.241	.311	.398	.709
Denzer Guzman	3.8	.526	.144	.010	.125	.269	1.120	.229	.288	.382	.671
Adam Frazier	3.7	.585	.137	.011	.059	.281	.856	.235	.302	.334	.636

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections