Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Yusei Kikuchi · 77°F

2.6% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Philadelphia Phillies win

58.5%

Los Angeles Angels win

41.5%

Fair line (home)

+141

Proj. total

8.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.57)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.55)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.13

Over

50.1%

Under

49.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	58.5%	-166	-141
Los Angeles Angels	41.5%	+152	+141

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.4	7.0	4.7	1.5	1.9
Yusei Kikuchi LHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.8	5.1	4.6	1.8	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Zack Wheeler4+ 93%6+ 72%8+ 40%

Yusei Kikuchi4+ 77%6+ 40%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.452	.120	.010	.326	.775	1.521	.226	.357	.505	.862
Trea Turner	4.7	.794	.189	.021	.151	.349	.964	.267	.327	.425	.752
Bryce Harper	4.6	.605	.199	.015	.218	.670	1.040	.266	.377	.492	.869
Alec Bohm	4.5	.767	.196	.011	.130	.336	.722	.268	.330	.415	.745
Edmundo Sosa	4.4	.677	.166	.034	.143	.199	1.028	.248	.293	.408	.702
Bryan De La Cruz	4.3	.640	.152	.005	.143	.292	1.145	.238	.294	.387	.681
Bryson Stott	4.2	.668	.160	.029	.107	.435	.723	.260	.341	.406	.747
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.591	.159	.013	.123	.301	.992	.240	.307	.390	.697
Derek Hill	3.9	.548	.127	.014	.118	.263	1.258	.222	.281	.361	.643

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wade Meckler	4.5	.808	.184	.015	.065	.370	1.131	.262	.327	.361	.689
Mike Trout	4.4	.528	.141	.007	.187	.584	1.437	.229	.340	.420	.760
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.730	.188	.006	.097	.255	.987	.256	.309	.379	.688
Moisés Ballesteros	4.2	.682	.176	.008	.116	.304	.924	.255	.314	.395	.709
Christian Moore	4.1	.557	.140	.025	.102	.353	1.419	.223	.297	.357	.654
Josh Lowe	4.0	.565	.163	.011	.124	.274	1.279	.234	.291	.385	.676
Jose Siri	3.9	.469	.130	.015	.136	.214	1.469	.208	.260	.365	.625
Oswald Peraza	3.7	.529	.114	.016	.096	.195	1.164	.217	.270	.342	.612
Denzer Guzman	3.6	.513	.136	.011	.108	.199	1.086	.227	.275	.369	.645

Data notes: home starter Yusei Kikuchi: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections