Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Ryan Johnson · 81°F

2.5% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Philadelphia Phillies win

65.7%

Los Angeles Angels win

34.3%

Fair line (home)

+192

Proj. total

8.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.20)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.45)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.66

Over

47.4%

Under

44.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	65.7%	-231	-192
Los Angeles Angels	34.3%	+208	+192

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	6.1	7.5	5.7	1.5	2.1
Ryan Johnson RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.2	3.2	4.7	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 95%6+ 79%8+ 49%

Ryan Johnson4+ 40%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.498	.125	.011	.363	.777	1.391	.242	.368	.542	.910
Trea Turner	4.8	.856	.193	.022	.170	.335	.885	.278	.334	.446	.780
Bryce Harper	4.7	.653	.217	.017	.233	.655	.952	.278	.383	.514	.897
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.022	.192	.036	.070	.259	.210	.306	.350	.416	.766
Alec Bohm	4.5	.789	.191	.012	.146	.333	.621	.276	.337	.435	.771
Bryson Stott	4.4	.723	.173	.034	.109	.432	.683	.264	.340	.408	.748
Brandon Marsh	4.3	.691	.172	.021	.151	.405	1.083	.269	.343	.443	.785
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.630	.175	.012	.130	.301	.905	.249	.313	.403	.716
Justin Crawford	4.0	.782	.162	.035	.058	.278	.737	.276	.330	.384	.715

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.5	.622	.205	.020	.143	.285	1.375	.238	.298	.400	.698
Mike Trout	4.4	.593	.167	.008	.157	.555	1.343	.243	.346	.414	.760
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.791	.199	.004	.079	.251	.901	.267	.317	.379	.696
Jose Siri	4.2	.554	.165	.019	.126	.215	1.544	.218	.264	.365	.629
Christian Moore	4.1	.605	.163	.030	.083	.333	1.359	.235	.302	.361	.663
Oswald Peraza	4.0	.629	.132	.018	.087	.191	1.177	.230	.277	.345	.622
Denzer Guzman	3.9	.602	.166	.011	.099	.211	1.109	.240	.286	.373	.659
Travis d'Arnaud	3.8	.507	.156	.005	.094	.199	1.167	.217	.267	.344	.611
Wade Meckler	3.6	.692	.153	.013	.042	.286	.875	.270	.331	.361	.693

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections