Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Reid Detmers · 91°F

6.6% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Philadelphia Phillies win

47.1%

Los Angeles Angels win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.74)Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.83)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.58

Over

55.4%

Under

36.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	47.1%	-121	+112
Los Angeles Angels	52.9%	+112	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.7	4.1	5.4	2.0	2.7
Reid Detmers LHP · Los Angeles Angels	5.2	5.5	5.2	1.9	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Painter4+ 61%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Reid Detmers4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.438	.114	.006	.337	.751	1.598	.222	.351	.505	.856
Trea Turner	4.7	.796	.187	.020	.162	.322	1.044	.267	.322	.430	.752
Bryce Harper	4.6	.598	.188	.015	.234	.643	1.098	.262	.370	.496	.866
Luis Arraez	4.5	1.013	.180	.035	.067	.261	.246	.307	.352	.414	.766
Alec Bohm	4.4	.741	.180	.012	.142	.319	.760	.266	.326	.421	.747
Bryan De La Cruz	4.3	.640	.152	.006	.159	.289	1.200	.240	.296	.401	.697
Bryson Stott	4.2	.664	.157	.031	.106	.413	.772	.256	.333	.398	.732
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.593	.163	.010	.133	.288	1.034	.241	.308	.398	.705
Derek Hill	4.0	.551	.128	.013	.130	.249	1.317	.224	.281	.372	.653

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.7	.665	.210	.019	.234	.392	1.141	.267	.342	.493	.834
Mike Trout	4.6	.613	.159	.007	.256	.710	1.125	.271	.393	.518	.911
Wade Meckler	4.5	.857	.189	.017	.082	.435	.859	.286	.360	.403	.763
Vaughn Grissom	4.4	.791	.207	.005	.131	.315	.735	.284	.343	.436	.779
Moisés Ballesteros	4.3	.739	.183	.008	.149	.371	.705	.280	.347	.447	.795
Christian Moore	4.2	.628	.157	.028	.134	.428	1.162	.257	.339	.423	.762
Josh Lowe	4.0	.602	.183	.012	.167	.346	1.023	.262	.328	.455	.783
Denzer Guzman	3.9	.607	.166	.011	.143	.272	.939	.256	.312	.426	.738
Tyler Heineman	3.8	.649	.118	.023	.069	.265	.705	.247	.314	.354	.668

Data notes: game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections