New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Grayson Rodriguez · 74°F

6.5% edge · Los Angeles Angels

New York Yankees win

56.7%

Los Angeles Angels win

43.3%

Fair line (home)

+131

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.77)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.83)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.59

Over

54.0%

Under

46.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	56.7%	-182	-131
Los Angeles Angels	43.3%	+166	+131

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.5	6.0	5.1	1.6	2.3
Grayson Rodriguez RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.9	5.3	4.6	2.0	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Gerrit Cole4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 25%

Grayson Rodriguez4+ 80%6+ 44%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.562	.165	.021	.287	.553	1.103	.247	.342	.501	.843
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.728	.170	.025	.186	.465	.757	.264	.342	.450	.791
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.725	.200	.026	.225	.265	.757	.273	.318	.489	.806
Spencer Jones	4.5	.522	.171	.013	.219	.369	1.616	.227	.297	.437	.734
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.4	.555	.130	.016	.205	.453	1.231	.233	.318	.433	.751
Trent Grisham	4.3	.487	.149	.013	.194	.564	.925	.230	.338	.436	.774
Ryan McMahon	4.2	.490	.136	.004	.155	.469	1.318	.214	.308	.381	.688
José Caballero	4.0	.568	.145	.007	.096	.383	.995	.228	.314	.352	.667
Austin Wells	3.9	.454	.136	.007	.166	.381	1.013	.218	.301	.402	.703

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.5	.553	.175	.016	.225	.294	1.298	.235	.297	.449	.746
Mike Trout	4.4	.523	.139	.007	.243	.568	1.288	.241	.348	.475	.822
Wade Meckler	4.3	.753	.165	.014	.076	.354	.996	.257	.322	.365	.687
Vaughn Grissom	4.2	.699	.176	.003	.120	.255	.839	.256	.308	.394	.702
Moisés Ballesteros	4.1	.645	.162	.005	.136	.290	.801	.251	.308	.405	.713
Christian Moore	4.0	.546	.128	.025	.121	.340	1.271	.226	.298	.376	.674
Josh Lowe	3.9	.508	.157	.011	.152	.269	1.136	.231	.287	.408	.695
Oswald Peraza	3.8	.529	.105	.016	.121	.197	1.068	.220	.271	.362	.633
Tyler Heineman	3.6	.544	.092	.024	.064	.210	.772	.216	.275	.316	.591

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections