New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Elmer Rodríguez vs Walbert Ureña · 75°F

4.2% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

57.7%

Los Angeles Angels win

42.3%

Fair line (home)

+136

Proj. total

8.97

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 5.01)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.96)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.97

Over

50.2%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	57.7%	-120	-136
Los Angeles Angels	42.3%	+111	+136

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Elmer Rodríguez RHP · New York Yankees	4.7	4.6	4.5	2.2	2.0
Walbert Ureña RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.7	4.1	4.8	2.6	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Elmer Rodríguez4+ 70%6+ 32%8+ 8%

Walbert Ureña4+ 59%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.9	.597	.179	.026	.259	.678	1.003	.254	.366	.494	.861
Cody Bellinger	4.8	.747	.184	.027	.174	.586	.671	.270	.363	.450	.814
Luis García Jr.	4.7	.760	.207	.028	.202	.338	.687	.276	.331	.476	.806
Amed Rosario	4.6	.841	.187	.024	.100	.279	.873	.270	.320	.395	.716
Trent Grisham	4.5	.515	.160	.013	.181	.691	.862	.233	.358	.428	.786
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.4	.580	.131	.016	.176	.545	1.098	.239	.340	.421	.761
Spencer Jones	4.3	.524	.164	.011	.189	.435	1.405	.235	.321	.434	.755
José Caballero	4.2	.609	.153	.007	.083	.455	.906	.236	.334	.351	.685
Austin Wells	4.0	.481	.145	.006	.152	.474	.908	.223	.323	.397	.720

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.590	.189	.017	.176	.404	1.222	.236	.317	.418	.735
Mike Trout	4.5	.558	.138	.008	.198	.741	1.196	.243	.376	.444	.820
Wade Meckler	4.4	.786	.170	.014	.060	.468	.903	.264	.346	.361	.706
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.709	.197	.004	.097	.336	.768	.257	.324	.384	.708
Moisés Ballesteros	4.2	.663	.178	.009	.108	.383	.737	.254	.328	.391	.719
Christian Moore	4.1	.552	.137	.027	.100	.439	1.204	.226	.315	.361	.676
Josh Lowe	4.0	.542	.172	.013	.129	.342	1.081	.237	.306	.399	.705
Oswald Peraza	3.9	.555	.117	.015	.104	.256	1.007	.224	.286	.353	.639
Tyler Heineman	3.7	.584	.099	.025	.057	.286	.711	.227	.301	.322	.622

Data notes: away starter Elmer Rodríguez: only 46 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Elmer Rodríguez: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections