Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Logan Gilbert vs Ryan Johnson · 72°F

0.4% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

61.3%

Los Angeles Angels win

38.7%

Fair line (home)

+158

Proj. total

8.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.87)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.59)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.46

Over

45.6%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	61.3%	-164	-158
Los Angeles Angels	38.7%	+151	+158

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	6.6	5.0	1.5	2.1
Ryan Johnson RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.4	3.8	4.4	1.7	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Logan Gilbert4+ 91%6+ 68%8+ 35%

Ryan Johnson4+ 54%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.8	.731	.167	.004	.119	.658	.864	.247	.356	.375	.731
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.640	.192	.009	.197	.508	1.059	.254	.354	.449	.804
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.663	.177	.016	.226	.378	.963	.257	.322	.467	.790
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.457	.132	.003	.285	.557	1.205	.224	.326	.477	.803
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.705	.163	.012	.225	.335	.907	.275	.338	.489	.827
Josh Naylor	4.3	.730	.169	.004	.158	.357	.570	.272	.339	.438	.777
Cole Young	4.2	.664	.151	.028	.122	.358	.670	.256	.329	.407	.736
Lazaro Montes	4.1	.433	.125	.009	.234	.381	1.342	.219	.298	.450	.749
Brock Rodden	4.0	.522	.142	.017	.117	.283	1.089	.219	.282	.364	.646

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.5	.569	.176	.019	.192	.282	1.397	.232	.295	.424	.719
Mike Trout	4.4	.518	.138	.004	.205	.547	1.395	.229	.335	.431	.765
Wade Meckler	4.3	.759	.161	.011	.064	.369	1.018	.256	.325	.352	.677
Vaughn Grissom	4.2	.668	.177	.004	.112	.253	.932	.247	.301	.380	.682
Moisés Ballesteros	4.1	.646	.156	.006	.124	.301	.922	.247	.307	.391	.698
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.552	.145	.011	.134	.217	1.209	.224	.271	.376	.646
Josh Lowe	3.9	.514	.150	.011	.133	.264	1.231	.226	.283	.386	.668
Christian Moore	3.7	.490	.120	.024	.097	.311	1.275	.215	.287	.350	.637
Tyler Heineman	3.6	.550	.098	.023	.053	.192	.809	.217	.275	.308	.583

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections