Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · George Kirby vs Yusei Kikuchi · 71°F

2.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

57.7%

Los Angeles Angels win

42.3%

Fair line (home)

+137

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.67)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.78)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.45

Over

45.3%

Under

47.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	57.7%	-131	-137
Los Angeles Angels	42.3%	+121	+137

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
George Kirby RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.8	5.8	5.7	1.3	2.3
Yusei Kikuchi LHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.9	5.2	4.6	2.1	2.3

Strikeout ladder

George Kirby4+ 85%6+ 53%8+ 22%

Yusei Kikuchi4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.8	.700	.169	.003	.117	.671	1.008	.239	.350	.366	.716
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.626	.177	.007	.188	.514	1.220	.243	.343	.426	.770
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.658	.170	.017	.211	.392	1.092	.251	.319	.450	.769
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.439	.127	.002	.270	.550	1.345	.213	.316	.453	.769
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.685	.161	.009	.207	.348	1.023	.264	.330	.463	.793
Josh Naylor	4.3	.715	.170	.003	.153	.382	.637	.268	.339	.432	.770
Taylor Ward	4.2	.532	.140	.009	.136	.574	1.054	.228	.341	.386	.727
Cole Young	4.1	.628	.138	.028	.114	.364	.739	.248	.324	.394	.718
Weston Wilson	4.0	.460	.121	.007	.137	.377	1.240	.204	.284	.357	.641

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.5	.621	.187	.024	.191	.250	1.236	.245	.302	.438	.740
Mike Trout	4.4	.586	.155	.006	.206	.495	1.254	.248	.341	.451	.793
Wade Meckler	4.3	.804	.176	.013	.066	.337	.900	.269	.331	.371	.702
Vaughn Grissom	4.2	.713	.190	.005	.107	.223	.813	.258	.306	.390	.696
Moisés Ballesteros	4.1	.700	.170	.007	.124	.256	.803	.261	.311	.406	.717
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.587	.164	.011	.127	.203	1.086	.235	.279	.385	.664
Josh Lowe	3.9	.553	.169	.011	.132	.249	1.104	.239	.292	.402	.694
Christian Moore	3.8	.523	.130	.029	.096	.283	1.179	.226	.289	.364	.653
Adam Frazier	3.6	.617	.134	.010	.049	.197	.759	.239	.290	.328	.619

Data notes: home starter Yusei Kikuchi: only 58 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections