Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Taj Bradley vs Walbert Ureña · 72°F

5.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

54.8%

Los Angeles Angels win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

8.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.66)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.94)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.6

Over

54.7%

Under

45.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	54.8%	-103	-121
Los Angeles Angels	45.2%	-105	+121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Taj Bradley RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	6.5	5.1	2.2	2.3
Walbert Ureña RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.9	4.0	4.9	2.5	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Taj Bradley4+ 90%6+ 65%8+ 32%

Walbert Ureña4+ 60%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.9	.871	.213	.013	.088	.588	.692	.282	.386	.402	.788
Brooks Lee	4.8	.773	.172	.021	.147	.372	.739	.254	.317	.403	.720
Kody Clemens	4.7	.613	.171	.049	.180	.423	1.004	.241	.318	.433	.751
Josh Bell	4.6	.688	.170	.009	.139	.546	.826	.253	.349	.405	.754
Emmanuel Rodriguez	4.5	.578	.141	.036	.128	.704	1.304	.239	.368	.400	.769
Royce Lewis	4.4	.619	.195	.009	.160	.425	.915	.252	.329	.429	.758
Victor Caratini	4.3	.689	.128	.005	.101	.426	.772	.248	.343	.367	.710
Walker Jenkins	4.1	.619	.182	.023	.097	.477	.829	.255	.349	.398	.747
Ben Ross	4.0	.503	.166	.017	.096	.391	1.058	.217	.299	.352	.651

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.592	.183	.024	.202	.380	1.322	.244	.319	.448	.767
Mike Trout	4.4	.553	.140	.006	.202	.705	1.320	.244	.373	.449	.822
Wade Meckler	4.3	.794	.171	.014	.066	.464	.957	.271	.353	.374	.726
Moisés Ballesteros	4.3	.672	.163	.007	.133	.384	.895	.253	.324	.402	.727
Denzer Guzman	4.2	.595	.163	.010	.136	.290	1.176	.236	.293	.390	.683
Josh Lowe	4.0	.560	.157	.011	.147	.353	1.197	.239	.309	.408	.716
Oswald Peraza	3.9	.560	.119	.016	.103	.259	1.165	.221	.283	.348	.631
Jose Siri	3.8	.462	.130	.015	.153	.255	1.363	.216	.277	.393	.669
Tyler Heineman	3.7	.582	.103	.021	.060	.255	.747	.228	.296	.325	.621

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections