Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Connor Prielipp vs Grayson Rodriguez · 74°F

4.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

54.6%

Los Angeles Angels win

45.4%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

8.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.57)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.89)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.46

Over

45.5%

Under

46.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	54.6%	-106	-120
Los Angeles Angels	45.4%	-102	+120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Connor Prielipp LHP · Minnesota Twins	5.1	6.0	4.7	1.8	2.1
Grayson Rodriguez RHP · Los Angeles Angels	5.0	4.7	4.9	1.9	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Connor Prielipp4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 24%

Grayson Rodriguez4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.843	.219	.013	.102	.476	.764	.277	.365	.407	.772
Brooks Lee	4.7	.736	.173	.024	.170	.311	.789	.252	.307	.419	.727
Kody Clemens	4.6	.586	.166	.047	.211	.337	1.065	.240	.303	.452	.755
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.629	.196	.013	.175	.493	.868	.259	.353	.449	.801
Josh Bell	4.4	.655	.157	.009	.164	.426	.885	.251	.330	.421	.751
Emmanuel Rodriguez	4.3	.531	.136	.031	.145	.578	1.357	.231	.343	.404	.747
Royce Lewis	4.2	.584	.183	.007	.175	.339	.949	.249	.314	.438	.752
Walker Jenkins	4.1	.595	.165	.023	.113	.389	.899	.246	.326	.397	.723
Ben Ross	4.0	.476	.160	.016	.101	.331	1.126	.209	.281	.347	.628

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.637	.192	.023	.182	.372	1.262	.252	.330	.443	.774
Mike Trout	4.5	.567	.148	.005	.185	.681	1.265	.244	.370	.436	.806
Jose Siri	4.3	.553	.156	.020	.160	.295	1.467	.222	.284	.391	.675
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.713	.196	.004	.103	.304	.846	.261	.324	.393	.717
Denzer Guzman	4.2	.616	.174	.008	.116	.275	1.135	.238	.295	.378	.673
Oswald Peraza	4.0	.588	.125	.015	.101	.252	1.146	.222	.284	.346	.630
Travis d'Arnaud	3.9	.518	.157	.006	.113	.260	1.144	.219	.281	.359	.640
Christian Moore	3.8	.518	.131	.031	.095	.371	1.193	.227	.310	.367	.677
Wade Meckler	3.7	.698	.146	.012	.044	.381	.773	.274	.354	.366	.720

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections