Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Joe Ryan vs Reid Detmers · 72°F

0.8% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

50.4%

Los Angeles Angels win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

7.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.07)Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.79)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.85

Over

47.7%

Under

52.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	50.4%	-102	-101
Los Angeles Angels	49.6%	-106	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Joe Ryan RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.3	6.2	5.0	1.3	2.1
Reid Detmers LHP · Los Angeles Angels	5.4	5.5	4.8	1.9	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Joe Ryan4+ 89%6+ 61%8+ 28%

Reid Detmers4+ 81%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.788	.200	.012	.096	.462	.878	.262	.350	.384	.734
Austin Martin	4.7	.717	.189	.013	.052	.522	.982	.238	.334	.330	.663
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.597	.180	.015	.171	.497	1.009	.242	.337	.424	.762
Josh Bell	4.4	.628	.151	.007	.157	.389	1.012	.235	.310	.394	.704
Brooks Lee	4.3	.656	.152	.015	.152	.252	.834	.241	.291	.398	.689
Royce Lewis	4.2	.556	.171	.007	.169	.332	1.103	.233	.298	.412	.710
Victor Caratini	4.1	.626	.121	.005	.106	.314	.915	.231	.309	.352	.661
Walker Jenkins	4.0	.558	.161	.022	.104	.388	.994	.236	.318	.381	.699
Ryan Kreidler	3.9	.460	.135	.023	.095	.357	1.206	.204	.285	.337	.623

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.5	.584	.183	.020	.207	.280	1.327	.242	.307	.447	.755
Mike Trout	4.4	.550	.141	.006	.214	.540	1.340	.242	.346	.453	.799
Wade Meckler	4.3	.797	.170	.013	.064	.352	.998	.267	.333	.367	.700
Vaughn Grissom	4.2	.692	.185	.003	.111	.243	.919	.255	.309	.390	.698
Moisés Ballesteros	4.1	.670	.160	.006	.135	.289	.870	.258	.316	.411	.727
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.574	.161	.012	.136	.209	1.147	.236	.282	.395	.677
Josh Lowe	3.9	.528	.152	.009	.142	.257	1.189	.232	.288	.399	.687
Jose Siri	3.7	.452	.124	.011	.147	.200	1.354	.210	.263	.379	.642
Tyler Heineman	3.6	.571	.101	.025	.055	.189	.776	.226	.284	.320	.604

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections