San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Michael King vs Shohei Ohtani · 71°F

3.6% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

34.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

66.0%

Fair line (home)

-194

Proj. total

8.91

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.75)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.16)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.91

Over

49.7%

Under

42.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	34.0%	+222	+194
Los Angeles Dodgers	66.0%	-247	-194

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.655	.166	.014	.183	.513	1.140	.247	.337	.428	.765
Jake Cronenworth	4.6	.559	.150	.015	.106	.519	1.114	.210	.314	.335	.650
Manny Machado	4.5	.584	.152	.003	.189	.396	1.131	.230	.301	.409	.711
Gavin Sheets	4.3	.535	.158	.006	.154	.384	1.131	.217	.293	.378	.671
Ty France	4.3	.614	.137	.015	.110	.280	1.028	.228	.301	.357	.658
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.547	.158	.024	.146	.307	1.066	.230	.292	.400	.692
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.623	.140	.004	.108	.356	.880	.240	.314	.370	.684
Sung-Mun Song	3.9	.595	.121	.009	.083	.290	.898	.224	.285	.331	.616
Rodolfo Durán	3.8	.445	.117	.015	.104	.265	1.093	.196	.260	.327	.588

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.579	.172	.039	.295	.736	1.175	.278	.397	.568	.965
Andy Pages	4.6	.676	.207	.013	.221	.309	.989	.266	.326	.480	.806
Freddie Freeman	4.5	.697	.203	.014	.162	.540	.873	.279	.376	.465	.841
Mookie Betts	4.3	.668	.188	.018	.165	.516	.581	.273	.364	.463	.827
Max Muncy	4.3	.466	.129	.009	.208	.665	1.113	.230	.360	.447	.807
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.562	.162	.017	.178	.613	.745	.262	.375	.469	.844
Teoscar Hernández	4.0	.578	.160	.007	.177	.309	1.143	.250	.315	.441	.756
Dalton Rushing	3.9	.487	.128	.007	.155	.414	1.128	.226	.319	.402	.721
Alex Freeland	3.8	.497	.125	.014	.099	.435	1.058	.221	.319	.356	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections