San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Wandy Peralta vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 74°F

10.7% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

41.4%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-141

Proj. total

8.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.13)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.72)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.85

Over

46.3%

Under

53.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	41.4%	+218	+141
Los Angeles Dodgers	58.6%	-243	-141

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.699	.183	.015	.188	.491	1.063	.258	.341	.443	.784
Jake Cronenworth	4.6	.608	.164	.017	.103	.503	1.040	.220	.319	.345	.664
Manny Machado	4.5	.638	.164	.003	.185	.379	1.059	.240	.307	.415	.722
Gavin Sheets	4.4	.587	.169	.005	.148	.386	1.089	.228	.301	.384	.685
Ty France	4.3	.665	.152	.017	.115	.270	.969	.242	.309	.377	.685
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.703	.156	.004	.105	.354	.852	.254	.322	.380	.702
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.584	.167	.026	.134	.290	.983	.241	.300	.405	.705
Miguel Andujar	4.0	.688	.156	.019	.108	.227	.737	.261	.308	.400	.708
Luis Campusano	3.9	.545	.140	.006	.137	.341	.918	.237	.311	.398	.709

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.7	.730	.175	.018	.116	.347	.919	.244	.310	.375	.685
Andy Pages	4.5	.692	.198	.010	.194	.337	.969	.263	.327	.456	.782
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.707	.210	.014	.155	.549	.843	.284	.382	.467	.849
Mookie Betts	4.3	.662	.179	.020	.161	.529	.564	.271	.366	.457	.823
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.573	.153	.020	.172	.659	.732	.259	.379	.460	.839
Teoscar Hernández	4.1	.585	.167	.006	.169	.347	1.133	.248	.319	.433	.752
Max Muncy	4.0	.444	.120	.008	.186	.656	1.016	.229	.364	.439	.803
Dalton Rushing	3.9	.505	.131	.006	.147	.426	1.082	.231	.326	.401	.727
Alex Freeland	3.8	.498	.122	.009	.093	.432	1.037	.218	.317	.345	.662

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections