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7.7% edge · San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds
July 5, 2026 · JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan · 71°F
San Diego Padres win
40.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers win
59.3%
Fair line (home)
-146
Proj. total
8.88
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Diego Padres (mean 4.12)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.75)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
8.88
Over
39.5%
Under
53.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 40.7% | +197 | +146 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.3% | -217 | -146 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.7 | .665 | .170 | .014 | .210 | .525 | 1.105 | .254 | .344 | .452 | .797 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 4.6 | .562 | .149 | .015 | .120 | .535 | 1.094 | .211 | .316 | .345 | .660 |
| Manny Machado | 4.5 | .600 | .149 | .002 | .220 | .405 | 1.087 | .237 | .309 | .436 | .745 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.4 | .534 | .160 | .005 | .168 | .413 | 1.111 | .219 | .299 | .389 | .687 |
| Ty France | 4.3 | .625 | .140 | .013 | .125 | .288 | 1.010 | .232 | .307 | .371 | .679 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.2 | .557 | .162 | .026 | .160 | .330 | 1.040 | .237 | .302 | .418 | .721 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.1 | .627 | .139 | .004 | .116 | .381 | .850 | .242 | .318 | .377 | .695 |
| Sung-Mun Song | 4.0 | .592 | .112 | .010 | .090 | .318 | .873 | .221 | .287 | .332 | .620 |
| Luis Campusano | 3.9 | .514 | .132 | .005 | .160 | .368 | .940 | .235 | .315 | .415 | .729 |
Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.6 | .597 | .180 | .039 | .327 | .614 | 1.095 | .290 | .391 | .604 | .995 |
| Andy Pages | 4.5 | .674 | .205 | .012 | .239 | .252 | .939 | .271 | .321 | .497 | .818 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4.4 | .697 | .210 | .015 | .197 | .435 | .794 | .288 | .369 | .502 | .871 |
| Mookie Betts | 4.3 | .665 | .188 | .018 | .187 | .422 | .537 | .277 | .355 | .483 | .838 |
| Tommy Edman | 4.2 | .653 | .157 | .012 | .131 | .234 | .777 | .246 | .300 | .395 | .695 |
| Teoscar Hernández | 4.1 | .584 | .166 | .007 | .210 | .267 | 1.085 | .258 | .315 | .473 | .788 |
| Miguel Rojas | 4.0 | .686 | .174 | .005 | .091 | .244 | .539 | .261 | .314 | .386 | .699 |
| Alex Call | 3.8 | .561 | .139 | .011 | .096 | .434 | .730 | .241 | .339 | .375 | .714 |
| Eliezer Alfonzo | 3.7 | .611 | .129 | .003 | .064 | .216 | .520 | .233 | .286 | .327 | .613 |
Data notes: away starter JP Sears: only 12 BF vs LHB this season · away starter JP Sears: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections