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2.1% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds
July 10, 2026 · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Kyle Hurt · 76°F
Arizona Diamondbacks win
36.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers win
63.2%
Fair line (home)
-172
Proj. total
9.87
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.39)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.49)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.87
Over
43.7%
Under
46.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 36.8% | +182 | +172 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.2% | -200 | -172 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.8 | .654 | .191 | .026 | .210 | .568 | .889 | .257 | .352 | .464 | .816 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.7 | .711 | .151 | .034 | .097 | .693 | .723 | .250 | .369 | .378 | .748 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.6 | .520 | .149 | .083 | .182 | .608 | 1.131 | .236 | .345 | .454 | .799 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.5 | .707 | .180 | .009 | .116 | .546 | .864 | .258 | .355 | .398 | .753 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4.4 | .660 | .175 | .012 | .135 | .325 | .874 | .244 | .308 | .394 | .703 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.3 | .704 | .151 | .035 | .075 | .306 | .562 | .245 | .307 | .359 | .665 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.2 | .584 | .150 | .007 | .136 | .371 | .835 | .233 | .309 | .385 | .694 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 4.1 | .525 | .153 | .024 | .061 | .480 | 1.198 | .217 | .321 | .326 | .646 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.0 | .456 | .130 | .017 | .116 | .403 | 1.095 | .204 | .291 | .349 | .641 |
Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.7 | .652 | .180 | .046 | .325 | .698 | .950 | .302 | .409 | .614 | 1.023 |
| Andy Pages | 4.6 | .758 | .223 | .011 | .205 | .319 | .792 | .283 | .340 | .486 | .825 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4.5 | .791 | .237 | .016 | .177 | .486 | .686 | .308 | .389 | .510 | .899 |
| Mookie Betts | 4.4 | .739 | .206 | .018 | .185 | .464 | .433 | .294 | .372 | .499 | .872 |
| Tommy Edman | 4.3 | .727 | .168 | .024 | .115 | .290 | .718 | .261 | .318 | .403 | .720 |
| Kyle Tucker | 4.2 | .646 | .179 | .025 | .176 | .561 | .598 | .286 | .386 | .497 | .883 |
| Teoscar Hernández | 4.1 | .660 | .173 | .009 | .196 | .300 | .962 | .277 | .335 | .485 | .820 |
| Miguel Rojas | 4.0 | .746 | .185 | .004 | .088 | .268 | .439 | .279 | .333 | .404 | .737 |
| Dalton Rushing | 3.8 | .552 | .157 | .005 | .152 | .375 | .919 | .254 | .335 | .436 | .770 |
Data notes: home starter Kyle Hurt: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kyle Hurt: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections