Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Brandon Pfaadt vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 76°F

6.2% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

35.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

65.0%

Fair line (home)

-186

Proj. total

9.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.16)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.40)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.56

Over

48.5%

Under

51.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	35.0%	+240	+186
Los Angeles Dodgers	65.0%	-269	-186

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.8	.711	.203	.029	.199	.452	.855	.268	.345	.470	.814
Geraldo Perdomo	4.6	.750	.163	.037	.090	.544	.709	.257	.352	.382	.734
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.548	.166	.092	.176	.473	1.098	.245	.332	.465	.797
Gabriel Moreno	4.4	.769	.190	.010	.111	.427	.858	.272	.348	.409	.757
Max Kepler	4.3	.584	.167	.016	.130	.390	1.017	.230	.305	.380	.686
Tim Tawa	4.2	.537	.156	.021	.128	.345	1.128	.219	.288	.370	.658
Nolan Arenado	4.1	.619	.161	.007	.122	.282	.836	.239	.298	.382	.680
James McCann	4.0	.579	.151	.007	.103	.198	1.116	.223	.270	.349	.619
Tommy Troy	3.9	.581	.139	.030	.067	.317	.986	.232	.302	.347	.648

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.668	.188	.046	.309	.629	1.016	.301	.400	.601	1.001
Andy Pages	4.6	.742	.221	.013	.201	.274	.845	.278	.331	.478	.809
Freddie Freeman	4.5	.784	.237	.015	.166	.441	.718	.303	.380	.497	.877
Mookie Betts	4.4	.712	.202	.018	.176	.432	.469	.284	.359	.480	.839
Max Muncy	4.3	.535	.155	.016	.206	.567	.946	.251	.360	.473	.833
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.634	.166	.023	.168	.530	.656	.276	.374	.475	.849
Teoscar Hernández	4.0	.642	.179	.006	.194	.282	.986	.274	.330	.481	.811
Dalton Rushing	3.9	.543	.160	.007	.166	.367	.982	.250	.331	.441	.771
Tommy Edman	3.8	.649	.145	.027	.105	.245	.660	.263	.319	.409	.728

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections